Tuoi Vu Hong

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study investigates structural and policy determinants influencing Vietnam’s participation in global value chains, with a specific focus on both forward and backward linkages. The paper addresses an empirical gap in the literature by applying a unified econometric framework to a transitional economy context. The analysis is based on annual time-series data for the period 2010–2021, covering major phases of Vietnam’s trade liberalization, industrial upgrading, and investment openness. Although the data extend only to 2021, this timeframe represents the most recent period for which comprehensive and internationally comparable global value chains indicators are available. The selection is further justified by the structural delay in global value chain data compilation and the coverage of key structural transformations relevant to Vietnam’s development trajectory. Using multiple linear regression models, the study reveals that foreign direct investment and regional trade agreements significantly influence Vietnam’s global value chain position, though their effects differ across linkage types. Specifically, foreign direct investment inflows and regional trade agreements export coverage are negatively associated with forward linkage participation, while regional trade agreements engagement exerts a positive effect on backward linkages. Technological readiness does not exhibit a statistically significant impact, suggesting limited spillover effects from foreign direct investment to domestic firms. These findings underscore the need for more targeted strategies to enhance local value addition, foster production-oriented cooperation under regional trade agreements, and strengthen domestic absorptive capacity. The study offers timely policy implications for Vietnam and contributes to the broader literature on global value chain integration in emerging economies.