Evaluating key determinants of Vietnam’s integration into global value chains

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study investigates structural and policy determinants influencing Vietnam’s participation in global value chains, with a specific focus on both forward and backward linkages. The paper addresses an empirical gap in the literature by applying a unified econometric framework to a transitional economy context. The analysis is based on annual time-series data for the period 2010–2021, covering major phases of Vietnam’s trade liberalization, industrial upgrading, and investment openness. Although the data extend only to 2021, this timeframe represents the most recent period for which comprehensive and internationally comparable global value chains indicators are available. The selection is further justified by the structural delay in global value chain data compilation and the coverage of key structural transformations relevant to Vietnam’s development trajectory. Using multiple linear regression models, the study reveals that foreign direct investment and regional trade agreements significantly influence Vietnam’s global value chain position, though their effects differ across linkage types. Specifically, foreign direct investment inflows and regional trade agreements export coverage are negatively associated with forward linkage participation, while regional trade agreements engagement exerts a positive effect on backward linkages. Technological readiness does not exhibit a statistically significant impact, suggesting limited spillover effects from foreign direct investment to domestic firms. These findings underscore the need for more targeted strategies to enhance local value addition, foster production-oriented cooperation under regional trade agreements, and strengthen domestic absorptive capacity. The study offers timely policy implications for Vietnam and contributes to the broader literature on global value chain integration in emerging economies.

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    • Figure 1. Conceptual framework
    • Table 1. Results of the econometric model with the dependent variable FL
    • Table 2. Results of the econometric model with the dependent variable BL
    • Table A1. Summary of variables and data sources
    • Table B1. Expected signs of variables and supporting literature
    • Table C1. Countries that have RTAs with Vietnam
    • Table D1. Heteroskedasticity test – Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey (Model 1; Dependent variable: FL)
    • Table D2. Variance inflation factors (VIF) – Multicollinearity (Dependent variable: FL)
    • Table D3. Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test (Dependent variable: FL)
    • Table D4. Heteroskedasticity test – Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey (Model 2; Dependent variable: FL)
    • Table E1. Heteroskedasticity test – Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey (Dependent variable: BL)
    • Table E2. Serial correlation LM test – Breusch-Godfrey (Dependent variable: BL)
    • Table E3. Multicollinearity test – Variance inflation factor (VIF) (Dependent variable: BL)
    • Conceptualization
      Thu Nguyen Anh, Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong, Tuoi Vu Hong
    • Funding acquisition
      Thu Nguyen Anh, Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong
    • Investigation
      Thu Nguyen Anh, Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong
    • Methodology
      Thu Nguyen Anh, Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong
    • Project administration
      Thu Nguyen Anh
    • Software
      Thu Nguyen Anh, Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong, Tuoi Vu Hong
    • Supervision
      Thu Nguyen Anh, Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong
    • Visualization
      Thu Nguyen Anh, Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong, Tuoi Vu Hong
    • Writing – original draft
      Thu Nguyen Anh, Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong, Tuoi Vu Hong
    • Writing – review & editing
      Thu Nguyen Anh, Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong
    • Data curation
      Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong, Tuoi Vu Hong
    • Formal Analysis
      Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong, Tuoi Vu Hong
    • Resources
      Linh Nguyen Thi Phuong, Tuoi Vu Hong