A cross-impact analysis of the bank payment card market parameters and non-financial sectors’ indicators in the Ukrainian economy

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In Ukraine, card payment systems develop at a rate similar to that of modern digital payment instruments in most European countries.
The purpose of the paper is to establish interdependence and explain the nature of changing situations in the market of bank payment cards (BPC) taking into account the dynamics of economic development parameters in non-financial sectors of the Ukrainian economy.
The methodology of the study includes graphic methods analyzing the dynamics of economic development indicators and a method for analyzing the cause-and-effect relationship between the studied parameters considered with different lags.
Results showed that the most significant parameters for the development of the payment card infrastructure were the level of provision with POS terminals and the share of non-cash transactions. Their correlation with the economic development indicators reached 0.97. Up to the stage when the volume of non-cash payments by cards reached 5% of GDP, the impact of the BPC market on the change in the level of economic development had been insignificant according to the general idea. The development of the economy up to that point stimulated the development of the BPC market. Subsequently, the BPC market that was already sufficiently developed became one of the drivers aimed at the development of non-financial sectors of the Ukrainian economy after overcoming the 5% GDP level.

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    • Figure 1. Number of ATMs and POS terminals per 1,000 people
    • Figure 2. Share of non-cash payment and cash withdrawal transactions in the total volume
    • Figure 3. Comparison of the dynamics of changes in the payment infrastructure parameters and the share of cashless payment transactions
    • Figure 4. Ratio between the development levels of the payment card market and the development level of the non-financial sector of the Ukrainian economy
    • Figure 5. Cross-correlation matrix of the studied parameters (financial and non-financial)
    • Figure 6. Cross-correlation matrix of parameters pos, clu, gdppcu, gdppcd, and ort
    • Figure 7. Cross-correlation matrix of parameters pos, clu, gdppcu, gdppcd, and ort with a 1-year shift for the entire study period
    • Figure 8. Cross-correlation matrix of parameters pos, clu, gdppcu, gdppcd, and ort with a 1-year shift for the period up to 2011
    • Figure 9. Cross-correlation matrix of parameters pos, clu, gdppcu, gdppcd, and ort with a 1-year shift for the period starting from 2011
    • Table А1. Indicators and their symbols at the stage of analysis of the mutual influence of the studied factors
    • Conceptualization
      Aleksey Mints, Lesya Yastrubetska
    • Formal Analysis
      Aleksey Mints, Oleh Kolodiziev
    • Methodology
      Aleksey Mints, Oleh Kolodiziev
    • Validation
      Aleksey Mints, Oleh Kolodiziev
    • Writing – original draft
      Aleksey Mints, Mykhailo Krupka
    • Software
      Oleh Kolodiziev, Mykhailo Krupka
    • Supervision
      Oleh Kolodiziev, Lesya Yastrubetska
    • Data curation
      Mykhailo Krupka, Bohdana Vyshyvana
    • Investigation
      Mykhailo Krupka, Bohdana Vyshyvana
    • Project administration
      Mykhailo Krupka, Bohdana Vyshyvana
    • Visualization
      Mykhailo Krupka, Lesya Yastrubetska
    • Resources
      Bohdana Vyshyvana, Lesya Yastrubetska
    • Writing – review & editing
      Bohdana Vyshyvana, Lesya Yastrubetska