Assessing systemic risk in Morocco’s banking sector: Conditional value-at-risk approach

The main purpose of this study is to make an analysis to understand whether the exchange rate channel is effective in Azerbaijan. In this framework, quarterly data between 2001:01 and 2017:02 is examined in this study. Furthermore, VAR method is taken into the consideration in the analysis process. The findings show that exchange rate channel is very important for Azerbaijani economy. In other words, the exchange rate channel is working on the total output and price axis. Hence, it is recommended that necessary actions should be taken by a central bank regarding the effective usage of exchange rate channel to contribute to industrial production and employment.

Highly concentrated banking system risks and the cumulative effect due to their accumulation act as a driver for improving the macro-prudential policy implemented by central banks. For this reason, an effectively and comprehensively assessed systemic risk in the banking system is declared an express condition for the early detection of its production sources and blocking of potential spreading channels, reducing the possible implementation. In light of this, the article develops an approach to the aggregated systemic risk assessment and interpretation of its results. The proposed approach is based on the considered influence exerted by financial risks of systemically important banks on the destabilized banking system and interconnections between banks in the context of the possible crisis impulse spreading. The following steps should be accomplished to form an aggregated systemic risk indicator in the banking system. Firstly, the differentiation of systemically important banks by the degree of their systemic importance; secondly, an integral assessment of the bank operation riskiness within certain bank groups; thirdly, the cumulative composition of the corresponding integral indicators, taking into account their weighting coefficients based on two criteria, namely values of the systemic importance indicator differentiating the bank groups, and the correlation of their risks. Interpreting the quantitative measurement results with regard to the systemic risk in the banking system is followed by the recommendations below: the systemic risk grading into high, medium and low levels and the respective definition of the threshold aggregated systemic risk indicator value which informs about the possible systemic crisis when approached; justification of the selected supervision regime types (strengthened, moderate or weakened) for systemically important banks, depending on the riskiness level specific for their operation and the systemic importance degree. The developed approach to measuring the systemic risk by means of constructing an aggregated indicator and interpreting the obtained results was being tested considering the financial risk indicators of the systemically important banks in Ukraine during 2009–2018.

The paper investigates the impact of institutional quality on economic growth by taking 48 countries in Asia between 2005 and 2018. By using the quantile regression methods with panel data, institutional quality is found to be a key factor of economic development. However, in the lower-income Asian countries, the institution with better quality appears to promote the growth more effectively than in the higher-income ones. Moreover, the paper also finds out a nonlinear relationship between institutions and economic growth. The results show that there is an institutional threshold for economic growth to reach its highest level. If the institution indicator exceeds the threshold, it causes the reverse effect on the growth. Moreover, the economic growth of Asian countries is also affected by inflation (INF), labor force (LABO), trade openness (OPEN), and infrastructure (TELE). From that, the study suggests some policy implications for Asian countries and Vietnam, in particular, in order to improve institutions contributing to economic growth.