Multiplier effect of factors influencing the inflation processes in Ukraine in 2014-2018

  • Received May 10, 2019;
    Accepted July 24, 2019;
    Published September 16, 2019
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  • Article Info
    Volume 17 2019, Issue #2, pp. 49-57

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Inflation is a complex economic phenomenon in terms of form, development and consequences. Inflation undermines the possibilities of the economic regulation mechanism, nullifies the efforts to carry out structural changes and restore destroyed proportions. The aim of the article is to construct a regression model of the factors influencing the inflation processes in Ukraine and determine the multiplier effect of each factor on the resulting indicator. The object of the research is the inflation processes in Ukraine in 2014-2018. Mathematical modelling methods have been used in the base of the analysis. A correlation-regression analysis of inflation factors in Ukraine was conducted in the article. As a result of research, the presence of inflation of propositions (charges) in Ukraine is well-proven, that was conditioned in a greater degree by the increase of cost of commodities and services of natural monopolies, devaluation of national currency and increase in average salary. The value of inflation multipliers of these parameters and their functional influence on the cost-of-living-index have been determined. The dependence of the increase of the average salary is set on the change of the level of the minimum one has been determined. The most optimal directions of stimulant fiscal and monetary politics for the increase of the efficiency of government regulation of inflationary processes in Ukraine have been offered.
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    • Figure 1. Залежність приросту середньої заробітної плати від приросту мінімальної (грн)
    • Table 1. Динаміка реального валового внутрішнього продукту (ВВП) України
    • Table 2. Динаміка коефіцієнту монетизації
    • Table 3. Часові ряди показників регресійної моделі
    • Table 4. Вхідні дані регресійної моделі
    • Table 5. Кореляційна матриця
    • Table 6. Статистичні характеристики регресійної моделі інфляції
    • Table 7. Статистичні характеристики регресійної моделі заробітної плати