Trade openness, economic growth, and carbon emissions in Uzbekistan: Evidence from ARDL and WTO accession context

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The environmental consequences of trade liberalization remain a critical concern for developing countries pursuing World Trade Organization (WTO) membership. Uzbekistan’s recent economic reforms and accelerated integration into global markets necessitate an empirical assessment of how trade openness and economic growth interact with carbon emissions. This study aims to examine the long-run and short-run relationships between real GDP, trade openness, and per capita CO₂ emissions in Uzbekistan. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is applied to annual time series data from 1997 to 2024. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller test confirms that all variables are integrated of order I(1), and the ARDL(1,4,0) model is selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion. The bounds test F-statistic (4.607) exceeds the upper critical value at the 5% significance level, confirming long-run cointegration. The estimated long-run elasticities suggest that a 1% increase in GDP is associated with a 0.196% decrease in CO₂ emissions while a 1% increase in trade openness corresponds to a 0.185% reduction in emissions. These findings support the pollution halo hypothesis. The error correction coefficient of −0.94 indicates a rapid adjustment toward equilibrium. Validated by robust diagnostic tests, the results provide empirical evidence that Uzbekistan’s trade integration is compatible with environmental sustainability, offering policy guidance for aligning WTO accession strategies with green development objectives.

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    • Figure 1. Model selection based on Akaike information criterion (Top 20 ARDL models)
    • Figure 2. Histogram and Jarque–Bera normality test of residuals from the ARDL model
    • Figure 3. CUSUM stability test for the estimated ARDL model
    • Table 1. Descriptive statistics of log-transformed variables
    • Table 2. Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test results
    • Table 3. ARDL bounds test results for cointegration
    • Table 4. Estimated ARDL(1,4,0) model for CO₂ emissions with GDP and trade openness
    • Table 5. Long-run coefficient estimates from the ARDL(1,4,0) model for CO₂ emissions
    • Table 6. Error correction model (ECM) results for the short-run dynamics of CO₂ emissions
    • Table 7. Ramsey RESET specification test for the estimated ARDL model
    • Table 8. Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey heteroscedasticity test for the ARDL model
    • Table 9. Breusch–Godfrey serial correlation LM test for the ARDL model
    • Conceptualization
      Akhmadbek Yusupov, Fakhridin Karshiev, Xolilla Xolmuratov
    • Formal Analysis
      Akhmadbek Yusupov, Fozil Xolmurotov
    • Project administration
      Akhmadbek Yusupov, Fozil Xolmurotov
    • Supervision
      Akhmadbek Yusupov
    • Writing – original draft
      Akhmadbek Yusupov, Shuxrat Ishmuradov, Asror Umirov
    • Funding acquisition
      Zebo Tukhtaeva, Asror Umirov
    • Resources
      Zebo Tukhtaeva, Asror Umirov
    • Validation
      Zebo Tukhtaeva, Asror Umirov, Fakhridin Karshiev
    • Writing – review & editing
      Zebo Tukhtaeva, Fozil Xolmurotov, Fakhridin Karshiev, Xolilla Xolmuratov
    • Methodology
      Fozil Xolmurotov
    • Software
      Fozil Xolmurotov
    • Data curation
      Shuxrat Ishmuradov
    • Investigation
      Shuxrat Ishmuradov, Asror Umirov, Fakhridin Karshiev, Xolilla Xolmuratov
    • Visualization
      Shuxrat Ishmuradov, Fakhridin Karshiev, Xolilla Xolmuratov