Measuring the commercial potential of new product ideas using fuzzy set theory

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The stage of selecting creative ideas that have the prospect of further commercial use and can be used to create new products, services, or startups is one of the most complex and important stages of the innovation process. It is essential to take into account expert opinions and evaluations, often vague and ambiguous. The study aims to develop a methodological approach to measure the commercial potential of new product ideas based on fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic. To this end, three calculation schemes are developed: the first two are based on fuzzy multicriteria analysis using Fuzzy SAW and Fuzzy TOPSIS methods, respectively; the third is based on building a logical-linguistic model with fuzzy expert knowledge bases and applying fuzzy inference using the Mamdani algorithm. Fuzzy numbers in triangular form with triangular membership functions are used to present linguistic estimates of experts and fuzzy data; the CoA (Center of Area) method is used to dephase the obtained values. For practical application of the proposed algorithm, the model is used as an Excel framework containing a general set of input expert information in the form of linguistic estimates and fuzzy data, a set of calculations using three schemes, and a set of defuzzification of the obtained results. The framework allows for simulation modeling depending on the modification of the list of defined evaluation criteria and their partial criteria, and adjustments to expert opinions. The developed methodological approach is suggested for the initial stages of the innovation process to facilitate the assessment of creative ideas and improve their implementation.

Acknowledgment
This scientific paper is published with the support of the International Visegrad Fund.

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    • Figure 1. Measuring the commercial potential of creative ideas
    • Figure 2. Evaluation terms of membership functions
    • Figure 3. The system structure of Mamdani fuzzy inference
    • Figure 4. Main blocks of the framework of the developed methodological approach
    • Table 1. Term set with respective triangular fuzzy numbers
    • Table 2. Evaluation sub-crietria weights for fuzzy TOPSIS
    • Table 3. Fuzzy matrix of “solutions” for the application of fuzzy TOPSIS
    • Table 4. Section of the FKB (C) – fuzzy knowledge base to determine the level of ideas’ commercial potential according to the sub-criteria of criterion C – ‘creativity’
    • Conceptualization
      Maksym W. Sitnicki, Valeriy Balan
    • Data curation
      Maksym W. Sitnicki, Valeriy Balan, Inna Tymchenko, Viktoriia Sviatnenko, Anastasiia Sychova
    • Formal Analysis
      Maksym W. Sitnicki, Valeriy Balan, Inna Tymchenko, Viktoriia Sviatnenko, Anastasiia Sychova
    • Investigation
      Maksym W. Sitnicki, Valeriy Balan
    • Methodology
      Maksym W. Sitnicki, Valeriy Balan, Inna Tymchenko, Viktoriia Sviatnenko, Anastasiia Sychova
    • Project administration
      Maksym W. Sitnicki
    • Validation
      Maksym W. Sitnicki, Valeriy Balan, Inna Tymchenko, Viktoriia Sviatnenko, Anastasiia Sychova
    • Visualization
      Maksym W. Sitnicki, Valeriy Balan
    • Writing – original draft
      Maksym W. Sitnicki, Valeriy Balan, Inna Tymchenko, Viktoriia Sviatnenko, Anastasiia Sychova
    • Writing – review & editing
      Maksym W. Sitnicki, Valeriy Balan
    • Resources
      Maksym W. Sitnicki, Valeriy Balan, Inna Tymchenko, Viktoriia Sviatnenko, Anastasiia Sychova