Maximizing returns under capped risks: An optimization framework for options trading
-
Received December 1, 2024;Accepted April 16, 2025;Published May 1, 2025
-
Author(s)Link to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2995-0176
,
Link to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2151-4759,
Link to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9391-1801 -
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.22(2).2025.17
-
Article InfoVolume 22 2025, Issue #2, pp. 206-217
- TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯ
- 23 Views
-
9 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Precise risk management is crucial in options trading, especially in strategies with limited risk and capped profit potential. The Short Iron Condor is a widely adopted strategy due to its structured risk-reward profile. It provides traders with controlled exposure in low-volatility markets while maintaining defined profit and loss parameters. This paper deals with developing an optimization framework using a mixed-integer programming model to evaluate key factors influencing return efficiency, including maximum loss limits, price confidence intervals, and holding periods. Using 2023 options data for 14 U.S. equities and 9 ETFs, filtered and selected using Out of the Money Strategy (OTM), 324 option contracts from as many snapshots as possible, the study analyzes 324 trading scenarios with maturities ranging from 5 to 20 days. Results indicate that increasing the maximum loss limit raises total return but reduces return efficiency. A $100 loss limit generates an average return of $30 with a 40.7% return on investment, while a $900 limit increases returns to $131 but lowers return on investment to 18.8%. These findings demonstrate that higher risk exposure does not always enhance return efficiency in capped-risk strategies. The proposed framework provides actionable insights for traders aiming to refine strategy selection within well-defined risk constraints. Risk managers can utilize these findings to sustain stable investment portfolios, while algorithmic trading systems may integrate this optimization model for automated strategy refinements and real-time adjustments. This study enhances decision-making in options trading, portfolio risk management, and financial strategy development.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G11, G12, G14, G15
-
References52
-
Tables5
-
Figures2
-
- Figure 1. Short iron condor strategy
- Figure 2. Maximum loss vs ROI
-
- Table 1. US stocks and ETFs
- Table 2. Experimental design setups
- Table 3. Comparison of loss limits, average return, and ROI
- Table 4. Comparison of price confidence interval, average return, and ROI
- Table 5. Days to maturity-based comparisons
-
- Aguilera, S. C., & Lopez-Pascual, J. (2013). Analysing hedge fund strategies through the use of an option based approach. Spanish Journal of Finance and Accounting – Revista Española de Financiación Y Contabilidad, 42(158), 167-186.
- Ahn, H., Muni, A., & Swindle, G. (1999). Optimal hedging strategies for misspecified asset price models. Applied Mathematical Finance, 6(3), 197-208.
- Ang, A., Hodrick, R. J., Xing, Y., & Zhang, X. (2006). The cross-section of volatility and expected returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(1), 259-299.
- Ang, A., Hodrick, R. J., Xing, Y., & Zhang, X. (2009). High idiosyncratic volatility and low returns: International and further U.S. evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 91(1), 1-23.
- Aramonte, S., & Szerszeń, P. J. (2020). Cross-market liquidity and dealer profitability: Evidence from the bond and CDS markets. Journal of Financial Markets, 51, 100559.
- Bajo, E., Barbi, M., & Romagnoli, S. (2015). A generalized approach to optimal hedging with option contracts. The European Journal of Finance, 21(9), 714-733.
- Bali, T. G., & Peng, L. (2006). Is there a risk-return tradeoff? Evidence from high-frequency data. Journal of Financial Economics, 79(2), 377-402.
- Bhat, A. (2021). The Profitability of Volatility Trading on Exchange-traded Dollar-rupee Options: Evidence of a Volatility Risk Premium? Global Business Review.
- Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-654.
- Board, J., Sutcliffe, C., & Patrinos, E. (2000). The performance of covered calls. The European Journal of Finance, 6(1), 1-17.
- Bollen, N. P., & Whaley, R. E. (2004). Does net buying pressure affect the shape of implied volatility functions? The Journal of Finance, 59(2), 711-753.
- Bondarenko, O. (2014). Why are put options so expensive? The Quarterly Journal of Finance, 4(03), 1450015.
- Brandt, M. W., & Kang, Q. (2004). On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach. Journal of Financial Economics, 72(3), 217-257.
- Broadie, M., Chernov, M., & Johannes, M. (2007). Model specification and risk premia: Evidence from futures options. The Journal of Finance, 62(3), 1453-1490.
- Campbell, J. Y., & Hentschel, L. (1992). No news is good news: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 31(3), 281-318.
- Chang, C.-C., Hsieh, P.-F., & Wang, Y.-H. (2010). Information content of options trading volume for future volatility: Evidence from the Taiwan options market. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(1), 174-183.
- Chaput, J. S., & Ederington, L. H. (2002). Option spread and combination trading.
- Chen, A.-S., & Leung, M. T. (2003). Option straddle trading: Financial performance and economic significance of direct profit forecast and conventional strategies. Applied Economics Letters, 10(8), 493-498.
- Chiang, T. C., & Zhang, Y. (2018). An empirical investigation of risk-return relations in Chinese equity markets: Evidence from aggregate and sectoral data. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(2), 35.
- Chong, J. (2004). Options trading profits from correlation forecasts. Applied Financial Economics, 14(15), 1075-1085.
- Coval, J. D., & Shumway, T. (2001). Expected option returns. The Journal of Finance, 56(3), 983-1009.
- Dixit, A., Vipul, & Singh, S. (2019). Options pricing and short-selling in the underlying: Evidence from India. Journal of Futures Markets, 39(10), 1250-1268.
- Elices, A., & Giménez, E. (2013). Applying hedging strategies to estimate model risk and provision calculation. Quantitative Finance, 13(7), 1015-1028.
- Fahlenbrach, R., & Sandås, P. (2010). Does information drive trading in option strategies? Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(10), 2370-2385.
- French, K. R., Schwert, G. W., & Stambaugh, R. F. (1987). Expected stock returns and volatility. Journal of Financial Economics, 19(1), 3-29.
- Ghysels, E., Santa-Clara, P., & Valkanov, R. (2005). There is a risk-return tradeoff after all. Journal of Financial Economics, 76(3), 509-548.
- Goltz, F., & Lai, W. N. (2009). Empirical properties of straddle returns. Journal of Derivatives, 17(1), 38.
- Gordiaková, Z., & Lalić, M. (2014). Long Strangle Strategy Using Barrier Options and its Application in Hedging Against a Price Increase. Procedia Economics and Finance, 15, 1438-1446.
- Goyal, A., & Saretto, A. (2009). Cross-section of option returns and volatility. Journal of Financial Economics, 94(2), 310-326.
- Guo, D. (2000). Dynamic volatility trading strategies in the currency option market. Review of Derivatives Research, 4(2), 133-154.
- Harvey, C. R., & Whaley, R. E. (1992). Market volatility prediction and the efficiency of the S & P 100 index option market. Journal of Financial Economics, 31(1), 43-73.
- Hoffmann, A. O., & Fischer, E. T. S. (2012). Behavioral aspects of covered call writing: an empirical investigation. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 13(1), 66-79.
- Israelov, R., & Klein, M. (2015). Risk and Return of Equity Index Collar Strategies.
- Israelov, R., Klein, M., & Tummala, H. (2017). Covering the world: global evidence on covered calls.
- Kavussanos, M. G., & Visvikis, I. D. (2008). Hedging effectiveness of the Athens stock index futures contracts. The European Journal of Finance, 14(3), 243-270.
- Kedžo, M. G., & Šego, B. (2021). The relative efficiency of option hedging strategies using the third-order stochastic dominance. Computational Management Science, 18(4), 477-504.
- Larikka, M., & Kanniainen, J. (2012). Calibration strategies of stochastic volatility models for option pricing. Applied Financial Economics, 22(23), 1979-1992.
- Leggio, K. B., & Lien, D. (2002). Covered call investing in a loss aversion framework. The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 3(3), 182-191.
- Lintner, J. (1965). Security prices, risk, and maximal gains from diversification. The Journal of Finance, 20(4), 587-615.
- Maris, K., Nikolopoulos, K., Giannelos, K., & Assimakopoulos, V. (2007). Options trading driven by volatility directional accuracy. Applied Economics, 39(2), 253-260.
- Markowitz, H. (1959). Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. John Wiley & Sons.
- Mercurio, F., & Vorst, T. C. F. (1996). Option pricing with hedging at fixed trading dates. Applied Mathematical Finance, 3(2), 135-158.
- Mossin, J. (1966). Equilibrium in a capital asset market. Econometrica, 34(4), 768-783.
- Mugwagwa, T., Ramiah, V., Naughton, T., & Moosa, I. (2012). The efficiency of the buy-write strategy: Evidence from Australia. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(2), 305-328.
- Niblock, S. J., & Sinnewe, E. (2018). Are covered calls the right option for Australian investors?. Studies in Economics and Finance, 35(2), 222-243.
- Patton, A. J., & Sheppard, K. (2015). Good volatility, bad volatility: Signed jumps and the persistence of volatility. Review of Economics and Statistics, 97(3), 683-697.
- Samuel, Y. M. Z. T. (2018). Option implied beta and option return. Applied Economics, 50(2), 128-142.
- Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
- Sheu, H.-J., & Wei, Y.-C. (2011). Effective options trading strategies based on volatility forecasting recruiting investor sentiment. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(1), 585-596.
- Shivaprasad, S. P., Geetha, E., Raghavendra, K., & Matha, R. (2022). Choosing the right options trading strategy: Risk-return trade-off and performance in different market conditions. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 19(2), 37-50.
- Whaley, R. E. (2002). Return and Risk of CBOE Buy Write Monthly Index. Journal of Derivatives, 10(2), 35-42.
- Yu, J., & Yuan, Y. (2011). Investor sentiment and the mean–variance relation. Journal of Financial Economics, 100(2), 367-381.
-
-
Data curation
Emre Ari, Alp Ustundag, Mahmut Sami Sivri
-
Formal Analysis
Emre Ari, Alp Ustundag, Mahmut Sami Sivri
-
Investigation
Emre Ari, Alp Ustundag, Mahmut Sami Sivri
-
Methodology
Emre Ari, Alp Ustundag, Mahmut Sami Sivri
-
Resources
Emre Ari, Alp Ustundag, Mahmut Sami Sivri
-
Validation
Emre Ari, Mahmut Sami Sivri
-
Visualization
Emre Ari, Mahmut Sami Sivri
-
Writing – original draft
Emre Ari
-
Writing – review & editing
Emre Ari, Alp Ustundag
-
Conceptualization
Alp Ustundag, Mahmut Sami Sivri
-
Funding acquisition
Alp Ustundag
-
Project administration
Alp Ustundag
-
Supervision
Alp Ustundag
-
Software
Mahmut Sami Sivri
-
Data curation
-
Energy efficiency and green solutions in sustainable development: evidence from the Norwegian maritime industry
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 18, 2020 Issue #4 pp. 289-302 Views: 1110 Downloads: 260 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe maritime industry plays a special role in Norway. In recent years, it became subject to increasingly stronger requirements to reduce emissions. However, the most important is that the Norwegian maritime industry in several areas can deliver and further develop technology and products that provide lower emissions, nationally and globally. Going forward, technology development will be more important with time. Thus, it is important to find out what impact it will have on the industry’s sustainable development and estimate the efficiency of new technologies.
This paper primarily aims to find a new optimization tool, which allows monitoring progress in the maritime industry towards sustainable development.
The present study reveals many new possible zero-emission solutions in the maritime industry, such as battery-electric architectures, ammonia, hydrogen, biofuel, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), autonomous ships, etc. Moreover, it was highlighted that without active coordination between governance, academia, and industry, it is impossible to achieve international climate commitments and associated targets for reducing the emissions in the maritime industry.
In addition, in this study, a twofold model was proposed: the first part is the calculation of the Sustainable Development Index (SDI), and the last one is mathematical modeling, where the optimization variable carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and Sustainable Development Index (SDI) should be maximized.
The investigation results prove that the model should be tested, and further research in this area is needed.Acknowledgment
The research is supported by a grant from the Research Based Innovation “SFI Marine Operation in Virtual Environment (SFI-MOVE)” (Project no: 237929) in Norway.