ESG, financial and macroeconomic indicators affecting stock returns: Evidence from India’s Nifty100 ESG Index

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
ESG investing has emerged as a key factor in corporate strategy and capital investment, although its effects on stock returns in emerging markets such as India remain inconclusive. This paper investigates the effects of ESG scores and the financial performance of firms on the stock returns of firms in the Indian Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders Index. Based on balanced panel data on 14 firms for 2015–2024, the study employs pooled OLS, random-effects, and fixed-effects models, conducts the Breusch-Pagan LM and Hausman tests to determine the appropriate specification, and finally estimates a two-way fixed-effects model. The empirical findings show that the ESG score has a statistically significant negative correlation with stock returns, indicating a negative relationship between ESG performance and short-term returns in the market. Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is an important positive factor of stock returns, indicating that capital efficiency is important for stock price growth. The macroeconomic factors are also important: GDP growth has a statistically significant negative correlation with stock returns, whereas the statistical significance of inflation and industrial production is insignificant. There are no significant effects on returns in Earnings per Share (EPS) and Return on Assets (ROA). These findings imply that ESG integration in India is in its early development stage and could introduce short-term adjustment costs where corporate strategy and policy support are necessary to ensure sustainability initiatives are justified in the long-term value creation.

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    • Table 1. ESG scores of companies for the period from 2015 to 2024
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics of Indian macroeconomic factors for 2015–2024
    • Table 3. Pooled panel OLS regression estimates
    • Table 4. Random effect model estimates
    • Table 5. Fixed effect model result estimates
    • Table А1. Descriptive statistics of financial variables for 2015–2024
    • Conceptualization
      Maithili Naik, Swati Bhat, Pooja Shanbhag, Gajanan Haldankar
    • Data curation
      Maithili Naik, Swati Bhat, Gajanan Haldankar
    • Formal Analysis
      Maithili Naik, Swati Bhat, Pooja Shanbhag, Gajanan Haldankar
    • Investigation
      Maithili Naik, Swati Bhat, Pooja Shanbhag, Gajanan Haldankar
    • Methodology
      Maithili Naik, Swati Bhat, Gajanan Haldankar
    • Project administration
      Maithili Naik, Swati Bhat, Gajanan Haldankar
    • Software
      Maithili Naik
    • Supervision
      Maithili Naik, Swati Bhat, Pooja Shanbhag
    • Validation
      Maithili Naik, Swati Bhat, Pooja Shanbhag, Gajanan Haldankar
    • Writing – review & editing
      Maithili Naik, Gajanan Haldankar
    • Writing – original draft
      Swati Bhat, Pooja Shanbhag