A methodological approach to forecasting spatial distribution of workplaces in an industrial metropolis


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Many world cities retain their unique industrial status. Such a feature of the economy of an industrial metropolis imposes additional requirements on the development of the forecast of spatial distribution of workplaces. The article highlights the contradictions of the long-term development of an industrial megalopolis, which become scenic forks, when forecasted. These include optimization of the industrial and trade-service sectors of the economy, the ratio of inertial and innovative development vectors, variability of migration flows and the choice of the agglomeration model type. The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting the development of a large metropolis, where the industrial sector plays a significant role in the economy. At the methodological level, the article justifies principles of spatial development of an industrial metropolis. The article describes forecasting tools for spatial location of workplaces, based on a combination of several models. The study was performed through the example of Ekaterinburg – the industrial capital of Russia; the metropolis scenarios were justified until 2035; the forecast of spatial distribution was calculated through the example of the two sectors competing for investments – industrial and trade-service. The authors substantiate spatial distribution of workplaces taking into account the projected number of people employed, the number of population of working age and distinguishing features of transport behavior of citizens. The paper demonstrates that the number of large industrial enterprises in a historically industrial center and its first zone decreases, and the modern industry in the form of small and medium-sized businesses located in industrial parks commence gradually forming a circuit with nodes on transport routes towards the largest consumer territories.

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    • Figure 1. The scheme of the methods for shaping the concept of perspective development of the residential micro-districts of the metropolis
    • Figure 2. The number of employed in the Ekaterinburg city economy in terms of spatial zones, 2015
    • Figure 3. The structure of population in the context of spatial zones, 2015 and 2035
    • Figure 4. Forecast of the share of the industrial sector in the economic structure of Ekaterinburg micro-districts
    • Figure 5. Forecast of the share of trade-service sector in the economic structure of Ekaterinburg micro-districts
    • Table 1. Forecast of the structure of employed in terms of the key sectors of the Ekaterinburg economy