Global economic crisis of 2020 and a new paradigm of countercyclical management

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The new quality of globalization, which has emerged in the last decade and encompasses drastic changes in the economic, political and technological spheres, gives rise to a number of phenomena that violate the traditional logic of historical progress. One of them is the metamorphosis of the world economic cyclicity that emerged during the global 2020 economic crisis and led to a radical change in its nature, driving forces and regulatory mechanisms. The paper reveals the prerequisites for the crisis caused by traditional and emerging factors and proves its pandemic nature, which manifests itself, on one hand, in the synchronization of national business cycles, and on the other – in the integrative mutual influence of its political, institutional and environmental components. It has been proven that a particularly destructive role in the global regulatory mechanism was played by the “overlap” in space and time of the economic crisis and the health crisis provoked by the coronavirus pandemic. This requires an urgent systematic reform of global countercyclical management institutions based on a gestalt paradigm, which is qualitatively different in principles, goals and tools from the existing mechanisms for managing national economies and multinational enterprises. Scenario forecasts of the post-pandemic future of the world economy through overcoming the growing disintegration and deglobalization trends are outlined.

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    • Figure 1. Global GDP cyclical dynamics
    • Figure 2. Cyclical dynamics of global GDP per capita
    • Figure 3. Cyclical development of globalization of the world economy
    • Figure 4. Pandemic lifecycle architecture
    • Figure 5. Conceptual model of cyclical GDP dynamics
    • Table 1. Global GDP growth dynamics: actual and post-pandemic scenarios, %
    • Table 2. Characteristics of the stages of the pandemic life cycle
    • Conceptualization
      Anatolii Poruchnyk, Anatoliy Kolot , Yaroslava Stoliarchuk
    • Funding acquisition
      Anatolii Poruchnyk, Pawel Mielcarek
    • Investigation
      Anatolii Poruchnyk, Yaroslava Stoliarchuk, Denys Ilnytskyy
    • Methodology
      Anatolii Poruchnyk, Yaroslava Stoliarchuk, Denys Ilnytskyy
    • Resources
      Anatolii Poruchnyk, Pawel Mielcarek
    • Writing – original draft
      Anatolii Poruchnyk, Pawel Mielcarek, Yaroslava Stoliarchuk, Denys Ilnytskyy
    • Writing – review & editing
      Anatolii Poruchnyk, Anatoliy Kolot
    • Formal Analysis
      Anatoliy Kolot , Yaroslava Stoliarchuk, Denys Ilnytskyy
    • Project administration
      Anatoliy Kolot
    • Validation
      Anatoliy Kolot , Yaroslava Stoliarchuk, Denys Ilnytskyy
    • Data curation
      Pawel Mielcarek, Denys Ilnytskyy
    • Visualization
      Pawel Mielcarek, Denys Ilnytskyy