International economic and social determinants of the state economic security: A causal analysis


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The priority task for ensuring the economic security of a country, which is especially noticeable in the rapidly changing conditions of the contemporary global world, is to forecast challenges and threats. Economic security is one of the necessary conditions for state development, which provides guidelines for making major social and economic decisions. There are a few studies on the determinants of the economic security and no data about security determinants that are required to monitor it. The study aims to identify possible links between leading determinants of the economic security. For this purpose, on the example of Ukraine, causal links between the formation of real GDP (as the leading determinant that characterizes the economic security of the state), 11 determinants that indicate the level of international economic development, and 6 determinants of social development for the period 2014–2020 were determined. With a 5% level significance, the impact on the volume of real GDP of 14 determinants of state economic security was noted and specific time lags were defined. Besides, the bilateral causal effect and lack of causal connection between individual determinants were mentioned. Findings are helpful for effective public administration. In addition, active measures are needed to combat corruption, shadow and criminal economy, and state protection of domestic producers operating in the military, food, information, and energy security sectors.

Alina Bukhtiarova gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (0120U100473).

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    • Figure 1. International liquidity (IL_TR) multiplicative time series decomposition
    • Figure 2. Granger test results (fragment)
    • Table 1. Input data for causal analysis of state economic security determinants
    • Table 2. Statistically significant causal links
    • Table 3. Causal relationships between time series
    • Table A1. Input data for causal analysis of state economic security determinants
    • Conceptualization
      Volodymyr Orlov, Marcin Marczuk
    • Methodology
      Volodymyr Orlov, Marcin Marczuk
    • Project administration
      Volodymyr Orlov, Marcin Marczuk
    • Supervision
      Volodymyr Orlov, Marcin Marczuk
    • Validation
      Volodymyr Orlov, Marcin Marczuk
    • Writing – review & editing
      Volodymyr Orlov, Alina Bukhtiarova
    • Data curation
      Alina Bukhtiarova, Mykhaylo Heyenko
    • Formal Analysis
      Alina Bukhtiarova, Mykhaylo Heyenko
    • Visualization
      Alina Bukhtiarova, Mykhaylo Heyenko
    • Writing – original draft
      Alina Bukhtiarova, Mykhaylo Heyenko