Macroeconomic stability in European Countries across successive crises: A pentagon-based composite index approach

The purpose of the paper is to select the right market proxy for calculating the expected return, since critically evaluating proxies or selecting the correct proxy market portfolio is essential for portfolio management because the change in the market portfolio proxy affects returns. In this study, monthly data of equity indices are evaluated to find out the better market proxy. The indices taken are BSE 30 (Sensex), Nifty 50, BSE 100, BSE 200, and BSE 500. The macroeconomic variables used in the study are industrial production index (IIP), consumer price index (CPI), money supply (M1), and exchange rate in India. To avoid the influence of COVID-19, the research period was from January 2013 to December 2019 to critically evaluate these proxies in order to find the most appropriate market proxy. This paper reveals a noteworthy relationship between stock market returns and macroeconomic factors, while suggesting that the BSE 500 is a better choice for all equity indices, as the index also shows a significant relationship with all macroeconomic variables. BSE500 is a composite index comprising all sectors with low, mid and large cap securities, therefore it reflects the impact of macroeconomic factors most efficiently, taking it as a market proxy. This study was carried out in the context of India and can be replicated for other countries.

A significant aspect of financial regulation provides for risk mitigation, transparency improvement, and maintaining economic stability, making financial control systems more efficient. This article analyzes the interaction of financial regulation strength with financial control efficiency in five economies, such as the USA, the UK, Germany, Poland, and China, from 2020 to 2023. An econometric model is utilized and the World Bank Financial Regulatory Index is incorporated as the core independent variable, along with financial infrastructure, efficiency of risk modeling, GDP growth, inflation, and financial leverage; all variables are used to understand their effect on financial control mechanisms. It is confirmed that the stronger financial control efficiency of the USA, the UK and Germany is associated with their stronger scoring by financial regulation (the countries with higher scores of financial regulations are better enforced and have more appropriate risk management strategies). On the other hand, Poland and China have problems in terms of regulatory enforcement which translates into lower effectiveness of financial control. The results also show that inflation and financial leverage decrease the efficiency of financial control, and financial infrastructure and risk modeling are positively related to financial control efficiency. The study emphasizes the exigency of regulating financial oversight in emerging markets, strict enforcement policies, and embracing technological advancements that supplement the area. A future research agenda needs to broaden the scope to other economies and qualitative assessments of regulatory effectiveness.

The main objective of this research is to study the role and impact of fiscal decentralization on the macroeconomic stability of the country. The paper analyzes and systematizes approaches to the definition of ‘macroeconomic stability’ concept. The key factors that impact macroeconomic stability are identified. In the framework of this research, the authors identify fiscal decentralization as one of the factors affecting macroeconomic stability. To determine the strength and statistical significance of the above mentioned relationship, the authors suggest presenting macroeconomic stability as a functional dependency between macroeconomic stability and the level of fiscal decentralization, which is described by the following variables: the growth rate of money supply, investment and openness of the economy, fiscal decentralization. In this case, it is suggested to determine the level of fiscal decentralization in three directions: expenditure decentralization, revenue decentralization and expenditure decentralization simultaneously.