Comprehensive quantitative evaluation of municipal budget allocation efficiency: The Portuguese case

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The study provides a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of municipal budget allocation efficiency in Portugal over the period 2018–2022, based on a comparative and longitudinal analysis of financial data from 308 municipalities. Efficiency was assessed by examining the alignment between budget forecasts and actual financial execution. The results show that 77.6% of municipalities (n = 239) were classified as efficient in 2018, increasing to 82.1% (n = 253) in 2019 and 83.1% (n = 256) in 2020. However, a downward trend followed, with efficiency declining to 74.0% (n = 228) in 2021 and 73.7% (n = 227) in 2022. Over the five-year period, the average efficiency rate across all municipalities was 78.1%. In contrast, 21.9% of municipalities on average (ranging from 16.9% to 26.3%) consistently demonstrated inefficiencies in budget preparation and execution. The study identifies key contributing factors to inefficiency, including political interference, reliance on incremental budgeting approaches, and limited technical forecasting capacity. The data reveal persistent discrepancies between budgeted allocations and actual service demand, leading to resource misallocation and reduced fiscal credibility. Statistical patterns also indicate that municipalities with higher population densities and more diversified revenue sources tended to perform better in efficiency metrics. The findings support the conclusion that the adoption of rigorous, data-driven forecasting methodologies significantly improves financial planning outcomes and institutional trust. These results offer evidence-based recommendations for refining municipal financial management practices, particularly in settings subject to political and economic volatility.

Acknowledgment
This article is financed by Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal [Polytechnic Institute of Setúbal].

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    • Figure 1. Heatmap – Number of inefficient municipalities by district (2018–2022)
    • Figure 2. Coefficient of variation of municipal efficiency (2018–2022)
    • Figure 3. The most (green) and least (red) efficient municipalities in the budget preparation process between 2018 and 2022
    • Table A1. Index of inefficient municipalities (2018–2022)
    • Conceptualization
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares
    • Formal Analysis
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares
    • Investigation
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares
    • Methodology
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares, Alexandre Morais Nunes
    • Project administration
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares
    • Resources
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares, Alexandre Morais Nunes, Paula Heliodoro, Ana Catarina Kaizeler, Vanda Martins
    • Software
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares
    • Supervision
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares
    • Visualization
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares, Alexandre Morais Nunes, Paula Heliodoro, Ana Catarina Kaizeler, Vanda Martins
    • Writing – original draft
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares
    • Writing – review & editing
      Ricardo de Moraes e Soares, Alexandre Morais Nunes, Paula Heliodoro, Ana Catarina Kaizeler, Vanda Martins
    • Validation
      Alexandre Morais Nunes, Paula Heliodoro, Ana Catarina Kaizeler, Vanda Martins