Abdelaziz Aguilal

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The objective of this study is to assess the potential long-term impact of continued and increasing consumption of renewable energy on Morocco’s economic growth. Employing a Cobb-Douglas production function, the study investigates the influence of renewable energy on GDP over the period from 1990 to 2023. In order to consider a possible non-linear dynamic, the squared term of renewable energy consumption is included among the explanatory variables, and the analysis is conducted using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The findings reveal a non-linear, inverted U-shaped relationship between renewable energy use and economic growth. Specifically, the analysis identifies a critical consumption threshold of 9%, beyond which the effect on growth turns negative. Given that Morocco’s current energy strategy, adopted in 2009, targets a substantial increase in renewable energy use over the long term, the results suggest that unchecked expansion may hinder economic performance. Therefore, optimizing renewable energy use is essential, and a revision of 2009 energy policy appears warranted to ensure it aligns with long-term economic sustainability.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Morocco, while accounting for trade openness and CO₂ emissions per capita. Using annual data covering the period 1990–2024 and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the analysis captures both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships among the variables. The empirical results proved a long-term equilibrium relationship, as the bounds test rejects the null hypothesis of no cointegration, with the calculated F-statistic exceeding the upper critical bound I (1) at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels, and the error correction term being negative and highly significant (ECT = −0.2909), indicating that approximately 29% of short-run deviations from equilibrium are corrected each year. In the short term, the effects of renewable energy consumption on economic growth are mixed and largely delayed: while contemporaneous changes are not statistically significant, a positive and significant effect emerges after two periods. Trade openness exerts a positive and statistically significant influence with lagged effects, suggesting that increased trade activity stimulates economic growth in the short term. By contrast, CO₂ emissions per capita show an immediate positive but insignificant effect, followed by delayed negative and significant effects, reflecting short-term growth gains accompanied by subsequent environmental pressures. In the long run, renewable energy consumption and CO₂ emissions per capita are associated with a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth, whereas the long-run impact of trade openness, despite a positive coefficient, remains statistically insignificant.