Mohammed Hennach

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The objective of this study is to assess the potential long-term impact of continued and increasing consumption of renewable energy on Morocco’s economic growth. Employing a Cobb-Douglas production function, the study investigates the influence of renewable energy on GDP over the period from 1990 to 2023. In order to consider a possible non-linear dynamic, the squared term of renewable energy consumption is included among the explanatory variables, and the analysis is conducted using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The findings reveal a non-linear, inverted U-shaped relationship between renewable energy use and economic growth. Specifically, the analysis identifies a critical consumption threshold of 9%, beyond which the effect on growth turns negative. Given that Morocco’s current energy strategy, adopted in 2009, targets a substantial increase in renewable energy use over the long term, the results suggest that unchecked expansion may hinder economic performance. Therefore, optimizing renewable energy use is essential, and a revision of 2009 energy policy appears warranted to ensure it aligns with long-term economic sustainability.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This paper aims to investigate the short- and long-term relationships between fiscal deficit and economic growth in Morocco over the period 1985–2024. The ARDL bounds test approach is used to determine the existence of a cointegration relationship, while the error correction model (ECM) captures the short-run dynamics. The empirical results indicate that fiscal deficit exerts an immediate and significant negative effect on economic growth, suggesting that deficit financing may generate short-term macroeconomic pressures. However, the lagged effects of the fiscal deficit become positive and significant, reflecting a delayed expansionary impact of fiscal policy. In the long run, fiscal deficit has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, implying that persistent budget imbalances can hinder growth through debt accumulation and crowding-out effects. The bounds test confirms the existence of a stable cointegration relationship between the budget deficit and economic growth in Morocco. Furthermore, the negative and statistically significant error correction term indicates a relatively rapid adjustment towards long-term equilibrium following short-term shocks. These findings highlight the importance of prudent and sustainable fiscal management to support long-term economic growth in Morocco.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
In emerging economies, the integration of environmental considerations into fiscal policy analysis has emerged as a priority of sustainable development strategies. This paper seeks to investigate the asymmetric short- and long-term impacts of the budget deficit on CO₂ emissions per capita in Morocco from 1974 to 2022. A nonlinear ARDL model is employed to identify asymmetric fiscal dynamics over the period under study. The estimation results indicate that, in the short run, an increase in the budget deficit immediately and significantly reduces CO₂ emissions per capita (−0.0046; p < 0.05), while the delayed effect of this increase significantly increases emissions in the following period (0.0068; p < 0.05), revealing opposing dynamics and instability in the short-term adjustment process. Conversely, the immediate and delayed effects of negative changes in the deficit do not exert statistically meaningful short-run effects (p > 0.10). In the long run, both increases and decreases in the budget deficit reduce emissions (−0.0075; p < 0.05; −0.0171; p < 0.01, respectively), with a stronger effect associated with deficit reductions. The results also show that urbanization significantly reduces emissions (–0.0168; p < 0.05), whereas fossil fuel consumption increases them (0.0003; p < 0.05). In contrast, GDP per capita, along with inward FDI inflows, fails to demonstrate statistical significance over the long-term horizon (p > 0.05). These results underscore the nonlinear and asymmetric nature of the fiscal policy and environmental quality nexus, suggesting that prudent budget management can promote sustainable environmental outcomes.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Morocco, while accounting for trade openness and CO₂ emissions per capita. Using annual data covering the period 1990–2024 and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the analysis captures both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships among the variables. The empirical results proved a long-term equilibrium relationship, as the bounds test rejects the null hypothesis of no cointegration, with the calculated F-statistic exceeding the upper critical bound I (1) at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels, and the error correction term being negative and highly significant (ECT = −0.2909), indicating that approximately 29% of short-run deviations from equilibrium are corrected each year. In the short term, the effects of renewable energy consumption on economic growth are mixed and largely delayed: while contemporaneous changes are not statistically significant, a positive and significant effect emerges after two periods. Trade openness exerts a positive and statistically significant influence with lagged effects, suggesting that increased trade activity stimulates economic growth in the short term. By contrast, CO₂ emissions per capita show an immediate positive but insignificant effect, followed by delayed negative and significant effects, reflecting short-term growth gains accompanied by subsequent environmental pressures. In the long run, renewable energy consumption and CO₂ emissions per capita are associated with a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth, whereas the long-run impact of trade openness, despite a positive coefficient, remains statistically insignificant.