Debasis Mohanty

This study examines the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on various NSE capitalized indices of India. Five exchange rates were chosen based on trading contracts in the currency derivative segment of NSE. These exchange rates are US Dollar-Indian Rupee (USD/INR), Euro-Indian Rupee (EUR/INR), Great Britain Pound-Indian Rupee (GBP/INR), Chinese Yuan-Indian Rupee (CNY/INR) and Japanese Yen-Indian Rupee (JPY/INR), which are used as a regressor in this study. The data of NSE Nifty large-cap 100, Nifty mid-cap 100 and Nifty small-cap from December 1, 2012 to December 1, 2022 was considered for the study. GARCH (1, 1) model was used to analyze the nexus between exchange rate fluctuations and capitalized indices, and it was further validated by DCC GARCH to evaluate the volatility spillover. The result shows that exchange rate fluctuations have a positive effect on stock market volatility along with a varying degree of incidence on small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap. DCC α has been found to be significant in USD & GBP for small-cap, and GBP & CNY for mid-cap. On the other hand, USD, Euro, CNY and JPY have a significant impact on the large-cap index in the short-run. Further, it is found that there is long-run spillover effect (DCC β) of exchange rates on all capitalized indices of the Indian stock market, and it is highest in in the large-cap case.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on banking and financial service indices in India. To validate this, five exchange rates are considered based on their relative share in the total foreign remittance inflows to India, viz., Arabian Dirham (AED/INR), Great Britain Pound (GBP/INR), Saudi Riyal (SAR/INR), Singapore Dollar (SGD/INR), and US Dollar (USD/INR). The study includes daily data of a decade (2015–2025), and employs various econometric techniques such as ADF test, Johansen cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Impulse Response Function (IRF) for the analysis. The Johansen cointegration test indicates a long-run relationship between exchange rates and both the sectoral indices, as the probabilities are less than 0.05. The VECM analysis for both the Nifty Bank and Nifty FinServ identified USD/INR (2,308.66; 2,257.58) and SAR/INR (373.25; 360.73) as the dominant long-term drivers, whereas AED/INR (–2,671.406; –2,608.011) acts as a persistent structural anchor with a negative influence. In the short run, shocks in USD/INR and SGD/INR generate immediate positive effects, whereas volatility in AED/INR and SAR/INR leads to temporary negative deviations before the system converges back to the equilibrium. The impulse response function indicates that exchange rate shocks have temporary effects on both the indices, which dissipate quickly, reflecting rapid market adjustment and overall efficiency. The findings of this study will help policymakers to improve the exchange rate risk monitoring system and executives in banks and financial institutions to formulate their hedging strategies. For investors and portfolio managers, the findings suggest that currency movements can serve as early indicators of market fluctuations, thereby supporting more informed investment decisions.