Lyubomir Todorov

Domestic trade is an essential contributor to economic growth and an indicator of the people’s welfare. It is vulnerable to the COVID-19 crisis due to the pandemic itself and the government’s measures against it. An accurate estimation of the pandemic influence on domestic trade is needed for effective economic intervention in support of the economic recovery and improvement of the well-being of the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the magnitude and timing of the COVID-19 impact on domestic trade in Bulgaria. The data used in the study covered the period 2000–2020 with monthly data for the indicator “Turnover for wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in Bulgaria.” This paper employed unit root tests, autocorrelation function analysis, building, estimating, forecasting ARIMA and ARCH models, and intervention analysis. The results revealed that Bulgarian domestic trade followed the difference-stationary process as unit root tests failed to reject the random walk hypothesis. The COVID-19 impact on domestic trade proved to be long-lasting and has permanently decreased its level since March 2020. The timing of the impact coincided with the government’s measures against the pandemic. The drop in the volume of domestic trade was substantial and estimated at 19.3%. Following the nature of domestic trade, determined and decisive intervention is necessary if the Bulgarian government seeks to expand domestic demand and successfully procure economic recovery.