Olha Mulska

The effective functioning of the banking sector has a key impact on the stability of economic growth. The study is aimed at monitoring the banking sector development and identifying causality between the banking sector and economic growth. The methodological tools of the research are Principal component analysis, causal relationship, and vector regression modeling. The empirical study is based on the World Bank databank by eight components (for integral analysis) and seven indicators (for causality analysis). The study presents an improved algorithm for monitoring the level of banking sector development based on calculating the integral coefficient. According to assessment, the level of banking sector development and realization of its potential in Ukraine is low and significantly inferior to the EU countries; in 2000–2019, the development of the banking sector in Ukraine was 0.061-0.153. The results obtained confirmed the large discrepancy in the development of Ukraine’s banking sector with some EU countries (the highest lag values were observed with the Czech Republic and Poland). The causality analysis revealed a strong favorable relationship between the level of development of the banking sector in Ukraine and GDP per capita (0.796), a moderate one – with foreign direct investment (0.400), and a reverse relationship with the level of national poverty (0.678). This study is of practical value for identifying two possible trajectories of a country’s development, namely, sustainable development and economic turbulence, and has allowed forming a conceptual vision of the role of the banking sector in achieving social and economic goals.

The level of positive migration aspirations of the population is determined by the unfavorable socio-economic environment and ineffective management of territory development, in particular the level of deprivation, including labor, security and living conditions. The paper aims to assess the impact of different components of deprivation on the spread of migration aspirations and create the landscape of a territory migration capacity. The methodological tool of the study is a sociological survey (a case study of Lviv Oblast, Ukraine) using a questionnaire (self-administration), which covered more than 500 people. Processing of results is carried out using SPSS software. The results of the sociological survey across migration vectors show the cause-effect relation between positive external aspirations and deprivation components. According to the assessment, the EU countries vector (72.0%) has the highest level of positive migration aspirations by income deprivation, and domestic migration vector – the lowest level (41.0%). The highest deprivation levels among socio-economic, environmental, and medical-demographical conditions for ineffective management of Lviv Oblast was detected for educational services with the level of 3.6 out of 5 possible, moderate level – for living and environmental conditions (2.9 each), and the lowest one for medical services (2.7). The spread of deprivation components at the territory according to the level of positive migration aspirations analysis shown that the highest deprivation levels in Lviv Oblast are peculiar to components such as the quality of medical services (43.4%), income (36.5%), and living conditions (35.1%). This study is of practical value for forming landscape of territory migration capacity including weighed migration aspirations and socio-economic deprivation levels.

Acknowledgments
The study has been conducted within the framework of Applied Research “Financial determinants of the provision of economic growth in the regions and territorial communities based on behavioral economy” with the support of the National Research Foundation of Ukraine (M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the grant Reg. No. 2020.02/0215, 2020-2022).

An essential determinant of the economic growth of regions and amalgamated hromada is budgetary security, the weakening of which causes the strengthening of financial imbalances of territories and the emergence of budget risks and threats in different time lags. The paper aims to assess budgetary security of regions and amalgamated hromada in Ukraine in an unstable economy. The assessment of budgetary security and risks of areas and amalgamated hromada is carried out based on a multidimensional statistical analysis of budget indicators, calculation of the aggregate indicator of budget risks, and the level of budgetary security by a multiplicative method. The study sample included the regions of Ukraine and 22 amalgamated hromada in terms of cities of regional significance, urban, township, and rural territorial assemblies, which are represented by different areas in Ukraine. According to the assessment, Poltava, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv oblasts are characterized by a low level of budget risks, which indicates high budget stability. On the other hand, the strengthening of budget imbalances, deterioration of the strength of local budgets, in particular in 2019–2020 in urban amalgamated hromada (Druzhbivska and Malovyskivska (6-8 points)); in village areas (Malynivska (5 points), Steblivska (7-7 points)); in rural amalgamated hromada (Chmyrivska (8-7 points)). The study results can serve as an analytical basis in the practice of local governments in the development and justification of regional and local budget policies, the nature of inter-budgetary relations, the formation of regional development strategies, etc.

Acknowledgments
The study has been conducted within the framework of Applied Research “Financial determinants of the provision of economic growth in the regions and Amalgamated hromada based on the behavioral economy” with the support of the National Research Foundation of Ukraine (M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the Grant Reg. No. 2020.02/0215, 2020–2022).

The growing Ukrainian migration towards EU countries determines the need for evaluation of pull factors shaping their environment to regulate these processes better. The study aims to assess the EU’s pull environment attracting migrants, and evaluate the elasticity of Ukrainian total and labor migration to the change of social and economic factors in EU countries. The data are collected for the period from 2005 to 2018. The method involves weighting the indicators and sub-indices with the following calculating partial and integral indices of the pull environment of migration for selected EU countries (the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Italy, Portugal, Greece, and Spain) and the EU-28. During 2005–2018, the integral level of pull environment of migration in the EU-28 was above average, whereas the most attractive countries for external migrants were Germany, the Czech Republic, Spain, and Italy. In terms of the intensity of total migration from Ukraine in 2018, Poland (236.06 departures per 1,000 Ukrainians), Hungary (73.6), Germany (12.6), and Italy (7.3) are among the main destinations. While the intensity of Ukrainian migration is high, its growth rate depends on the time lag (different elasticities in the medium and long run). The integral analysis of the pull environment has a practical value allowing to conduct migration intensity and elasticity evaluation, as well as the cross-country pull-factor analysis (pull strength) for substantiating the improvement of regulatory and methodological provisions of migration policies for both Ukraine and the hosting EU states.

Acknowledgment
The study has been conducted within the framework of applied research “Mechanisms of the proactive policy for reducing social vulnerability of the population (based on the Carpathian region of Ukraine)” (M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Reg. No. 0121U112014, 2021–2023).

In instability and economic turbulence, the wellbeing of households as market economy entities constitutes the financial-investment capacity of a region, the level of which is determined by the conditions of the competitive socio-economic environment. The paper aims to estimate the financial wellbeing of households on the example of the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine in instability. The study is based on a system-integral estimation method, which includes the implementation of three stages: (1) development of a system of indicators, (2) determination and substantiation of weight significance, and (3) construction of time series of empirical parameters of households’ wellbeing based on temporal and spatial approaches. The analysis reveals that the financial wellbeing of households differentiates in a competitive economic environment and with the spread of behavioral factors (COVID-19, consumer reflections). Among the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine, the highest values of empirical parameters of financial wellbeing were in Zakarpatska (0.537) and Chernivetska (0.459) oblasts (2019). Meanwhile, the level of the financial wellbeing of households is higher in Lvivska oblast by several indicators. The divergence of the Carpathian region from Ukraine by the level of the financial wellbeing of households was mostly observed in 2018–2019. Zakarpatska oblast was the leader by the level of the financial wellbeing of households in 2010–2019. The study is of the practical nature for framing the regional economic policy in terms of detecting the critical “pressure” of financial wellbeing on the economic growth of the region and economic ability to increase investment capacity.

Acknowledgments
The study has been conducted within the framework of the Applied Research “Financial determinants of the provision of economic growth in the regions and territorial communities based on behavioural economy” with the support of the National Research Foundation of Ukraine (M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the grant Reg. No. 2020.02/0215, 2020–2022).

The system of indicators of the population’s socio-economic vulnerability is the determinant of regions’ social resilience. The growth of these indicators leads to the emergence of new and aggravation of existing social risks and threats in different time periods. The paper aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the population’s social resilience environment in the Carpathian region of Ukraine. The environment of the population social resilience in the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine is assessed based on the theory of elasticity by calculating the temporal weight coefficients of 31 indicators (systematized in 4 groups) and integral empirical coefficient of the environment by multiplicative assessment. The results show that among the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine, the social resilience environment was the highest in Zakarpatska and Ivano-Frankivska oblasts (0.530 each) in 2019, and in Lvivska (0.540) and Chernivetska (0.585) oblasts in 2014. The growth of the social resilience environment rate was recorded in Lvivska (0.630) and Chernivetska (0.691) oblasts in the period of economic capacity recovery (2018). The average annual growth pace of the coefficient of deviation of the empirical social resilience environment rate from the national rate ranged from –1.29% to –0.26%. The study can serve as an information-analytical basis for developing the regional policy to secure the convergence of social standards of social resilience between the Carpathian region and neighboring EU countries (adherence to the principles of consumption safety and social responsibility, growing resistance of the healthcare system, balanced labor market and employment, development of clean and safe living spaces).

Acknowledgment
The study was conducted within the framework of applied research “Mechanisms of the proactive policy for reducing social vulnerability of the population (based on the Carpathian region of Ukraine)” (No SR 0121U112014, M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2021–2023).

Insecurity, chaotic extensive internal movement, and external migration, growing social vulnerability, and decreasing economic stability of internally displaced persons, characterize the migration crisis caused by the large-scale Russian war against Ukraine. The aim of this paper is to reveal the needs (tangible and intangible), challenges, and opportunities for the social integration of internally displaced persons in the host communities (on the example of the Pidberiztsivska territorial community of Lviv oblast). The paper presents the sociological survey through in-depth interviews based on questionnaires. The sample is based on five strata (four starostyn areas and the administrative center) and amounts to 4% of the statistical population (50 displaced persons). The paper specifies that the host society’s lack of affordable housing (68.6% of respondents) and limited employment opportunities (39.9% of respondents) are the main challenges for internally displaced persons. The survey reveals a low level of integration of internally displaced persons and a lack of desire to assimilate into the host society caused by positive aspirations to emigrate abroad (13.5% of respondents) and intentions to return to their previous (permanent) place of residence (54% of respondents). Mapping the problems and needs of internally displaced persons can constitute the information-analytical basis for ensuring the communities’ economic progress in times of war in terms of accumulation and efficient use of the capacity of internally displaced persons.

Acknowledgment
The study is conducted within the framework of the grant “Instruments for the support of integration of IDPs into life in the Pidberiztsivska territorial community: A pilot project in Lviv oblast” funded by the International Renaissance Foundation (Grant registration number 54766, 2022–2023).

The aggravation of the migration crisis in the country against the background of socio-economic instability in conditions of war has triggered the deterioration of the institutional and economic capacity of local governments to ensure further integration of internally displaced persons in the host society. The article aims to identify the resource and economic capacity of local governments in conditions of war to ensure the needs and adaptation of internally displaced persons to new living conditions (using the example of Pidberiztsivska Territorial Community of Lvivska Oblast). The research is based on a questionnaire survey in the form of in-depth interviews with the representatives of local governments. The sample consists of 20 persons; strata are formed in accordance with the staff units of local governments (head of the village council; representatives of the community’s administrative center and starostyn districts; heads of structural units of the village council). The paper emphasizes that local governments face a great challenge in ensuring the adaptation of internally displaced persons in the community, mainly related to the lack of free housing (according to 76.2% of respondents) and the labor surplus in the local market (over 20%). The results show that the majority of internally displaced persons see the community only as a place of “waiting” and seek to return to the former residence place (68.4% of the interviewed representatives of local government), so they shouldn’t be deemed as a potential community asset. Proactive tools for increasing the resource and economic capacity of local governments to ensure further integration of internally displaced persons include interaction with regional authorities, efficient use of the capacity of relocated businesses, cooperation with charitable foundations and NGOs to solve housing problems and create additional high-wage jobs.

Financial resilience is the basis of economic development as it determines the ability of the financial system to efficiently perform its functions and ensure optimal resource allocation and the normal course of economic processes under the impact of macroeconomic shocks and endogenous risks. The article aims to assess financial resilience as a systemic component of ensuring the economic development of Ukrainian regions. The research methods include systemic and structural analysis (building an information and analytical model for studying financial resilience), clustering (grouping regions by the criterion of economic development), and risk theory and analysis of variance (identifying potential zones of financial resilience and its components). Data from the regions (oblasts) of Ukraine for 2015–2021 serve as the information and analytical basis of the study. The article reveals that in 2021 regions with better financial resilience (Zhytomyrska, Dnipropetrovska, Kyivska, Lvivska, Odeska, Kharkivska, Cherkaska, and Volynska oblasts) take leading positions in terms of economic development and more efficient use of exogenous and endogenous financial resources than the regions with low financial resilience (Chernivetska, Vinnytska, Khmelnytska, Donetska, Ternopilska, and Ivano-Frankivska oblasts). The study proves that enhancing financial resilience is a trigger and foundation for ensuring economic growth in the regions, especially amid macroeconomic shocks. Balancing the need to use financial resources to restore the economy (growth of production, consumption, and employment) while reducing the dependence of regional economies on external financial sources should become the main vector of policy to ensure the financial resilience of Ukrainian regions.

Acknowledgments
The study was conducted within the framework of the “Financial Determinants of Ensuring Economic Growth of Regions and Territorial Communities based on Behavioral Economics” project (No. 2020.02/0215) funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine (Competition “Support for Research of Leading and Young Scientists”).

Stable economic progress and upward dynamics of economic growth in the regions depend on their level of security and ability to withstand adverse macroeconomic and other shocks, as well as the state of affairs in which risks cannot be transformed into threats and dangers. The study aims to assess the causal nexus and the level of sensitivity of regional economic growth components to changes in financial resilience determinants. The research methods include systemic and structural analyses (building an information and analytical model for studying financial resilience), Granger test (identifying causal relationships between the variables under study), risk theory (studying the nature of fluctuations), and spatial and temporal approach. Data from the regions (oblasts) of Ukraine between 2015 and 2021 form the informational and analytical basis of the study. The paper reveals that the targeted use of transfers for socio-economic progress, increasing investment capacity, and bolstering financial and budgetary autonomy through increasing local budget revenues are the dominant financial determinants of regional economic growth. The results show that the most dominant causal nexus exists between (1) budgetary efficiency, interest rates on consumer/mortgage loans, and SME development, (2) the volume of loans/deposits and labor market efficiency and SME development, and (3) innovation development and foreign economic cooperation. Intensification of investment activity is crucial for ensuring real changes in the economic structure of all regions, particularly outsiders, accelerating transformation processes, mitigating regional economic divergence, and increasing competitiveness.

Acknowledgments
The study was conducted within the framework of the “Financial Determinants of Ensuring Economic Growth of Regions and Territorial Communities based on Behavioral Economics” project (№ 2020.02/0215) funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine (Competition “Support for Research of Leading and Young Scientists”).

The financial self-sufficiency of communities determines their ability to create additional jobs, attract investment resources, offer quality social services, and improve the population’s living standards and well-being. The study aims to identify the casual relationships between financial self-sufficiency and local economic development of Ukrainian territorial communities during economic instability. The paper used integrated assessment based on a spatial approach (identifying the level of local economic development), indicative method (calculating empirical values of financial self-sufficiency of communities), VEC model (analyzing the sensitivity of local economic development to changes in financial self-sufficiency), balanced multi-component regression method (modeling the relationship between local economic development and financial self-sufficiency). Data were gathered on all territorial communities of Ukraine in 2021. The results show that the highest level of local economic development was observed in Dnipropetrovsk oblast (empirical coefficient equal to 0.855), high levels in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Kyiv, and Poltava oblasts (0.787; 0.687; 0.684; 0.663 each, respectively), and moderate levels in Zakarpattia (0.448) and Kirovohrad (0.433) oblasts. With increased financial self-sufficiency, local economic development can exceed 2%; a 1% increase in the decentralization of tax revenues and expenditures simultaneously leads to an increase in the attractiveness of the investment climate as an indicator of local economic development (2.3-6.6%). The study proves that the territorial communities of the regions characterized by a low level of local economic development demonstrated higher values of decentralization of interbudgetary revenues than those with higher values of local economic development.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has exacerbated challenges and risks to community development. Improving the ability to withstand the shocks of the external and internal environment, adapt to changes in the security environment, respond to threats, maintain sustainable functioning, and recover to the desired equilibrium will contribute to strengthening the resilience of communities. Budgetary instruments are crucial for ensuring the resilience of communities in such conditions. This study aims to identify the impact of budgetary instruments on ensuring the resilience of territorial communities amid the war in Ukraine (the case of Lviv oblast). The methods include a systemic and structural approach (building an information and analytical model of resilience research) and indicative and GAP analysis (identifying the impact of budgetary instruments on community resilience, in particular, local taxes, transfers, and personal income tax (PIT)). The data of 73 communities in Lviv oblast for 2021–2023 were collected. The study shows that the resilience of the territorial communities of Lviv oblast during the study period was at a moderate and above-moderate level; most were in the zones of resistance (resilience indicators ranging from 0.43-0.65) and decreasing resilience (0.42-0.20); the resilience of 8% was at a critically low level (2022–2023). The results estimate that the resilience of 90% communities in 2024 will not change significantly if military PIT is redirected from local to state budgets, except for those communities whose resilience is highly dependent on the amount of military PIT (the decrease in resilience will range from 12.5 to 4.2 percentage points).

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has become an existential challenge and a trigger of the migration crisis. The study aims to identify migration intentions of youth and factors for the preservation of the young population in Ukraine (a case study of university youth). The study conducts a sociological survey using a Google Forms questionnaire. The sample was formed by the method of three-stage selection: (1) quotas for the share of undergraduate and graduate students; (2) the higher education institutions in Ukraine were selected by the criterion of the number of students and specialties; and (3) field of knowledge. The sample size is calculated based on the resampling method and included 2,200 people from all regions in Ukraine (except Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts). The study reveals that 10% of students plan to go abroad in the near future before graduation, 30% plan to stay in Ukraine only if the socio-economic situation improves after the end of the war, and 28.3% plan to migrate after graduation. The reasons for positive migration aspirations among students are socio-economic and security issues (14.9% can find a job abroad in the short term, 11.1% see the lack of further prospects in Ukraine even after the end of the war). Monitoring of youth migration processes across two vectors – current volumes and potential aspirations – can serve as an information and analytical basis for the development of a new vision of the country’s migration security strategy to preserve human resources in Ukraine.

Internal migration caused by the war of russia against Ukraine (with the active phase starting in February 2022) has increased the socio-economic burden on the host communities welcoming internally displaced population from the frontline and occupied territories. On the other hand, it intensifies behavioral reflections of local residents on the integration of internally displaced persons (IDPs). The study aims to identify opportunities, challenges, and prospects for IDPs’ adaptation in host communities (a case study of Lviv oblast, Ukraine). The paper conducted a sociological survey among 2,500 respondents in November 2022–February 2023. The results show that the lack of housing, lack of permanent employment, language contradictions, and forced limited contact with relatives who remain in the combat zone are existential barriers to the integration of IDPs into host communities. The study identified such opportunities for the integration of IDPs into the host society: reducing the risk of depopulation of territories, reducing imbalances in the local labor market in certain sectors of the economy, strengthening social cohesion, developing small businesses, and improving social infrastructure. The respective challenges include increased social tension, competition for jobs and housing, shortage of places in preschool institutions, and disproportionate distribution of budget funds between the local population and IDPs. Conflicts between IDPs and local residents, as well as IDPs and local authorities, require a proactive position of local authorities to initiate psychological support programs and create communication platforms for the exchange of individual experiences and discussion of psychological and emotional issues.

The Carpathian Region (Zakarpattia, Lviv, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk) is inferior to other regions in Ukraine regarding its economic development, which does not contribute to migration stability and, rather, serves as a factor motivating the active part of the population to emigrate. The problem of the labor market disproportions in the Carpathian Region is one of the significant causes of the formation and subsequent implementation of migration intentions, especially in rural areas, less economically developed areas, and district centers, where labor demand is much lower. The research aims to develop an innovative approach to calculating the intensity of the population’s external migration based on the introduction of a correction coefficient, which enables to consider the scale of transit migration in the Carpathian Region. The data presented in the study were collected for the period 2005–2018. Granger causality analysis is used to assess the relationship between migration and socio-economic development of the region. The analysis reveals that in all regions of the Carpathian Region, there is a short-run causal relationship between the intensity of external migration and the share of total household expenditure on food; in the medium run, the real household income, the size of the average monthly wages, and the volume of foreign portfolio investment, the foreign economic activity and retail trade turnover in the region; in the long run, living standards and indicators of economic growth. Future studies may require a more diverse set of indicators to evaluate the causal relationship in other regions of Ukraine, which will provide the integrity of the results of Granger causality analysis.

Acknowledgment
The research has been conducted within the framework of applied research ‘Migration Activity of the Population of the Carpathian Region’ (Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Reg. No. 0119U002010, 2019–2021).