Survival dynamics of SMES supported by credit guarantee schemes: Insights from Morocco

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The aim of this study is to assess the viability of SMEs that had benefited from bank loans backed by credit guarantee schemes. A quantitative approach has been adopted by the study. The sample comprised 398 Moroccan SMEs that had benefited from this type of financing, and the primary objective was to examine their survival over the ten years following the obtaining of these guarantees. Logistic regression was used to reflect several results. The results of the study highlight several factors influencing the probability of survival of these SMEs. Larger amounts of credit promote financial resilience and growth, thereby increasing the likelihood of business survival. Business profitability is a key factor in the likelihood of survival. Profitable businesses attract more investors and lenders, improving access to credit and increasing survival prospects. Contrary to some studies, high levels of debt do not appear to reduce the probability of survival. Similarly, repayment capacity showed no significant link with survival, suggesting the importance of other non-financial factors. Mature and well-considered management decision making is associated with a higher probability of survival. Well-thought-out decisions promote the long-term viability of businesses. Small SMEs also have a good chance of survival because of their rapid adaptability. A manager’s active participation in a company’s capital is linked to a higher probability of survival. This underlines the importance of the personal involvement of the manager and of solid governance.

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    • Figure 1. ROC curve
    • Table 1. Research hypotheses and variables
    • Table 2. Logistic regression goodness of fit
    • Table 3. Confusion matrix
    • Table 4. Variance Inflation Factor (VIF)
    • Table 5. Logistic regression coefficient estimates
    • Conceptualization
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Data curation
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Formal Analysis
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Funding acquisition
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Investigation
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Methodology
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Project administration
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Resources
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Software
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Supervision
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Validation
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Visualization
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Writing – original draft
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza
    • Writing – review & editing
      Oussouadi Kamal, Cherkaoui Kenza