Nexus between foreign exchange rate and stock market: evidence from India


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This study examines the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on various NSE capitalized indices of India. Five exchange rates were chosen based on trading contracts in the currency derivative segment of NSE. These exchange rates are US Dollar-Indian Rupee (USD/INR), Euro-Indian Rupee (EUR/INR), Great Britain Pound-Indian Rupee (GBP/INR), Chinese Yuan-Indian Rupee (CNY/INR) and Japanese Yen-Indian Rupee (JPY/INR), which are used as a regressor in this study. The data of NSE Nifty large-cap 100, Nifty mid-cap 100 and Nifty small-cap from December 1, 2012 to December 1, 2022 was considered for the study. GARCH (1, 1) model was used to analyze the nexus between exchange rate fluctuations and capitalized indices, and it was further validated by DCC GARCH to evaluate the volatility spillover. The result shows that exchange rate fluctuations have a positive effect on stock market volatility along with a varying degree of incidence on small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap. DCC α has been found to be significant in USD & GBP for small-cap, and GBP & CNY for mid-cap. On the other hand, USD, Euro, CNY and JPY have a significant impact on the large-cap index in the short-run. Further, it is found that there is long-run spillover effect (DCC β) of exchange rates on all capitalized indices of the Indian stock market, and it is highest in in the large-cap case.

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    • Figure 1. Time series plot of all the indices
    • Table 1. Market capitalization
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics
    • Table 3. Unit root test results
    • Table 4. ARCH L-M test
    • Table 5. GARCH test
    • Table 6. TGARCH
    • Table 7. GARCH model of small-cap and exchange rate as a regressor
    • Table 8. GARCH model of mid cap and exchange rate as a regressor
    • Table 9. GARCH model of large cap and exchange rate as a regressor
    • Table 10. ARCH L-M diagnostic test
    • Table 11. Dynamic conditional correlation parameters
    • Conceptualization
      Debasis Mohanty, Amiya Kumar Mohapatra
    • Formal Analysis
      Debasis Mohanty, Rahul Matta
    • Methodology
      Debasis Mohanty, Amiya Kumar Mohapatra
    • Software
      Debasis Mohanty
    • Writing – original draft
      Debasis Mohanty, Amiya Kumar Mohapatra
    • Data curation
      Amiya Kumar Mohapatra, Sasikanta Tripathy
    • Supervision
      Amiya Kumar Mohapatra
    • Validation
      Amiya Kumar Mohapatra
    • Investigation
      Sasikanta Tripathy, Rahul Matta
    • Visualization
      Sasikanta Tripathy, Rahul Matta
    • Writing – review & editing
      Sasikanta Tripathy, Rahul Matta