Market efficiency of dividend-paying firms under hawkish monetary policy: The case of Indonesia
-
Received July 14, 2025;Accepted November 19, 2025;Published December 5, 2025
-
Author(s)Novi Swandari BudiarsoLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5832-0117
,
Winston PontohLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3123-7919
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.22(4).2025.26
-
Article InfoVolume 22 2025, Issue #4, pp. 335-344
- TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯ
- 16 Views
-
1 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Type of article: Research Article
Abstract
Throughout 2024, interest rate changes and dividend announcements have become crucial information for investors in determining their investment portfolios. These two factors have different impacts on stock price movements in the market. This study aims to examine weak-form market efficiency based on these factors. The sample consists of companies that regularly announce and distribute dividends, as they are considered to attract significant investor attention. To test market efficiency, this study applies the runs test and variance ratio test to analyze time series data of stock returns adjusted for risk-free rates. The findings indicate that the Indonesian stock market in 2024 is relatively efficient, particularly in its weak form. The implication is that interest rate changes and dividend announcements play a crucial role in determining market efficiency. This condition is supported by rational investor behavior in allocating their investments between stocks and risk-free assets, assuming that dividends remain sufficiently profitable. This study contributes to the development of the efficient market hypothesis, particularly regarding the simultaneous entry of interest rate and dividend announcement information into the market. However, this study is limited by the sample criteria within a specific period. Therefore, future research is expected to expand the scope of analysis by incorporating additional factors.
Acknowledgment
The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to Universitas Sam Ratulangi for the financial support provided for this study.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G11, G14
-
References54
-
Tables6
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Descriptive statistics
- Table 2. Mean difference test
- Table 3. ADF test
- Table 4. LB test-based on ARIMA
- Table 5. Runs and VR tests (joint)
- Table 6. VR test (individual)
-
- Aawaar, G., Logogye, L., & Domeher, D. (2023). Equity return volatility in Africa’s stock markets: A dynamic panel approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(2).
- Aharony, J., & Swary, I. (1980). Quarterly dividend and earnings announcements and stockholders’ returns: An empirical analysis. The Journal of Finance, 35(1), 1-12.
- AlGhazali, A., Al-Yahyaee, K. H., Fairchild, R., & Guney, Y. (2024). What do dividend changes reveal? Theory and evidence from a unique environment. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 62, 499-552.
- Almeida, L. A. G., Pereira, E. T., & Tavares, F. O. (2015). Determinants of dividend policy: Evidence from Portugal. Review of Business Management, 17(54), 701-719.
- Alsharif, M. (2023). Interest rate, foreign exchange and stock performance in a dual banking industry: Evidence from Saudi Arabia. Journal of Money and Business, 3(1), 60-73.
- Asquith, P., & Mullins, D. W. (1986a). Equity issues and offering dilution. Journal of Financial Economics, 15(1-2), 61-89.
- Asquith, P., & Mullins, D. W. (1986b). Signalling with dividends, stock repurchases, and equity issues. Financial Management, 15(3), 27-44.
- Basri, H. (2019). Assessing determinants of dividend policy of the government-owned companies in Indonesia. International Journal of Law and Management, 61(5/6), 530-541.
- Bhattacharya, S. (1979). Imperfect information, dividend policy, and “the bird in the hand” fallacy. The Bell Journal of Economics, 10(1), 259-270.
- Black, F. (1976). The dividend puzzle. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 2(2), 5-8.
- Borges, M. R. (2010). Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets, The European Journal of Finance, 16(7), 711-726.
- Bustanji, M. (2020). Testing strong form market efficiency of Jordanian Capital Market: Performance appraisal of mutual funds a comparable study case with Saudi Arabia. Theory, Methodology, Practice-Review of Business and Management, 16(02), 3-15.
- Carvalho, C., Cordeiro, F., & Vargas, J. (2013). Just words? A quantitative analysis of the communication of the Central Bank of Brazil. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 67(4), 443-455.
- Carvalho, F. G., & Muinhos, M. K. (2023). The Central Bank of Brazil’s time-varying Taylor rule. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 77, 512-532.
- Chettri, N., & Kharkongor, M. J. (2024). Dividend payout and firm value relationship: Role of age and size. Emerging Economy Studies, 8(2), 71-81.
- Cohen, J. (1992). A power primer. Psychological Bulletin, 112(1), 155-159.
- da Silva, P. P. (2022). Market efficiency and the capacity of stock prices to track a firm's future profitability. Borsa Istanbul Review, 22(3), 452-464.
- Diallo, O. K., Mendy, P., & Burlea-Schiopoiu, A. (2021). A method to test weak-form market efficiency from sectoral indices of the WAEMU stock exchange: A wavelet analysis. Heliyon, 7(1), e05858.
- Easterbrook, F. H. (1984). Two agency-cost explanations of dividends. The American Economic Review, 74(4), 650-659.
- Elangovan, R., Irudayasamy, F. G., & Parayitam, S. (2022). Testing the market efficiency in Indian stock market: Evidence from Bombay Stock Exchange broad market indices. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 27(54), 313-327.
- Eldomiaty, T., Saeed, Y., Hammam, R., & AboulSoud, S. (2020). The associations between stock prices, inflation rates, interest rates are still persistent: Empirical evidence from stock duration model. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 25(49), 149-161.
- Fairchild, R., Guney, Y., & Thanatawee, Y. (2014). Corporate dividend policy in Thailand: Theory and evidence. International Review of Financial Analysis, 31, 129-151.
- Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
- Franc-Dąbrowska, J., Mądra-Sawicka, M., & Ulrichs, M. (2020). Determinants of dividend payout decisions – the case of publicly quoted food industry enterprises operating in emerging markets. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 33(1), 1108-1129.
- Gbanador, M. A. (2021). An empirical test for semi-strong form efficient market hypothesis of the Nigeria Stock Market. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 21(23), 42-53.
- Grullon, G., Michaely, R., & Swaminathan, B. (2002). Are dividend changes a sign of firm maturity? The Journal of Business, 75(3), 387-424.
- Gu, G., Zhu, W., & Wang, C. (2021). Time-varying influence of interest rates on stock returns: evidence from China. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 2510-2529.
- Guenich, H., Hamdi, K., & Chouaibi, N. (2022). Asymmetric response of investor sentiment to economic policy uncertainty, interest rates and oil price uncertainty: Evidence from OECD countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 1-18.
- Hájek, J. (2007). Czech capital market weak-form efficiency, selected issues. Prague Economic Papers, 16(4), 303-318.
- Hayunga, D. K., & Stephens, C. P. (2009). Dividend behaviour of US equity REITs. Journal of Property Research, 26(2), 105-123.
- Kapons, M., Kelly, P., Stoumbos, R., & Zambrana, R. (2023). Dividends, trust, and firm value. Review of Accounting Studies, 28, 1354-1387.
- Keswani, S., Puri, V., & Jha, R. (2024). Relationship among macroeconomic factors and stock prices: cointegration approach from the Indian stock market. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 1-20.
- Kok, S. C., & Munir, Q. (2015). Malaysian finance sector weak-form efficiency: Heterogeneity, structural breaks, and cross-sectional dependence. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 20(39), 105-117.
- Krishnan, P., & Periasamy, M. N. (2022). Testing of semi–strong form of efficiency: An empirical study on stock market reaction around dividend announcement. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 7(2), 1-18.
- La Porta, R., Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (2000). Agency problems and dividend policies around the world. The Journal of Finance, 55(1), 1-33.
- Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1988). Stock market prices do not follow random walks: Evidence from a simple specification test. The Review of Financial Studies, 1(1), 41-66.
- Lotto, J. (2021). Does earnings distribution policy influence corporate stock price instability? Empirical evidence from Tanzanian listed industrial firms. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1-11.
- Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
- Maquieira, C. P., Arias, J. T., & Espinosa-Méndez, C. (2023). The relationship between dividend payout and economic policy uncertainty (EPU), ownership concentration and free cash flow in Chile. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 36(3), 1-19.
- Michayluk, D., Neuhauser, K., & Walker, S. (2022). When no news is good news: Failing to increase dividends. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 18(1), 138-155.
- Miller, M. H., & Rock, K. (1985). Dividend policy under asymmetric information. The Journal of Finance, 40(4), 1031-1051.
- Mouna, A., & Anis, J. (2016). Market, interest rate, and exchange rate risk effects on financial stock returns during the financial crisis: AGARCH-M approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 4(1), 1-16.
- Phan, T. K. H., & Tran, N. H. (2019). Dividend policy and stock price volatility in an emerging market: Does ownership structure matter? Cogent Economics & Finance, 7(1), 1-29.
- Salah, O. B., & Jarboui, A. (2024). The relationship between dividend policy and earnings management: A causality analysis. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 29(57), 166-185.
- Santosa, P. B., Pangestuti, I. R. D., Wahyudi, S., & Muharam, H. (2023). Dividend policy in Indonesian banking sector during COVID-19 pandemic period. Cogent Social Sciences, 9(2), 1-16.
- Schrank, J. (2024). The impact of a crisis on monetary policy’s influence on financial markets: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 1-15.
- Singh, N. P., & Tandon, A. (2019). The effect of dividend policy on stock price: Evidence from the Indian Market. Asia-Pacific Journal of Management Research and Innovation, 15(1-2), 7-15.
- Sutherland, C. S. (2023). Forward guidance and expectation formation: A narrative approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38(2), 222-241.
- Syed, A. M., & Bajwa, I. A. (2018). Earnings announcements, stock price reaction and market efficiency – The case of Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 11(3), 416-431.
- Tursoy, T. (2019). The interaction between stock prices and interest rates in Turkey: Empirical evidence from ARDL bounds test cointegration. Financial Innovation, 5(7), 1-12.
- Vasileiou, E. (2021). Behavioral finance and market efficiency in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: does fear drive the market? International Review of Applied Economics, 35(2), 224-241,
- Yemidi, S., Asante, G. N., & Takyi, P. O. (2023). Inflation and interest rate dynamics in Ghana: The supply-side perspective. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 14(4), 776-791.
- Zelalem, B. A., & Abebe, A. A. (2022). Balance sheet and income statement effect on dividend policy of private commercial banks in Ethiopia. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 1-16.
- Zobi, M. K. A., & Al-Dhaimesh, O. H. (2021). The impact of cash flow statement components on stock volatility: Evidence from Qatar. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 18(2), 365-373.
-
-
Conceptualization
Novi Swandari Budiarso
-
Formal Analysis
Novi Swandari Budiarso
-
Methodology
Novi Swandari Budiarso
-
Supervision
Novi Swandari Budiarso
-
Writing – review & editing
Novi Swandari Budiarso
-
Data curation
Winston Pontoh
-
Funding acquisition
Winston Pontoh
-
Investigation
Winston Pontoh
-
Project administration
Winston Pontoh
-
Resources
Winston Pontoh
-
Software
Winston Pontoh
-
Validation
Winston Pontoh
-
Visualization
Winston Pontoh
-
Writing – original draft
Winston Pontoh
-
Conceptualization
-
Determinants of dividend policy
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 16, 2019 Issue #1 pp. 167-177 Views: 3516 Downloads: 1020 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯPakistan’s capital market and economy have significant features for examining the dynamics of the dividend policy. The agency conflicts between the management and the investors of the firms are main barriers to the success of the firm. The shareholder is generally taking away all the rights and similarly has a control on the decision concerning the dividend policy. The dividends are conveying better information than any other source regarding the firm’s prospects. The aim of this research is to identify and analyze the influence of shareholder preference and dividend signaling on the dividend policy of the corporations in Pakistan. The respective study presents the analysis of top financial management beliefs by taking eighty listed corporations on Pakistani stock exchanges during 2017–2018. Pearson correlation and multiple regressions are applied on responses to explore whether there is an influence regarding the shareholder preferences and the signaling mechanism on the dividend policy of the listed firms in Pakistan. Through statistical techniques the findings proved that shareholder preferences and dividend signaling have a positive and significant relationship with the dividend policy of listed corporations. Dividend policy is the response of investor preferences and signaling aspect of dividends.
-
The impact of cash flow statement components on stock volatility: Evidence from Qatar
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 18, 2021 Issue #2 pp. 365-373 Views: 2412 Downloads: 1720 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe published financial statements are considered one of the most important sources of information that investors rely on in forecasting stock performance or even judging the organization’s ability to cover short-run liabilities. Cash flows play a core role in maintaining a high market value for its shares. Hence, this study came to analyze the explanatory value of the cash flow statement in explaining stock volatility (SV) in the Qatar financial market. Study data were collected using published financial statements from a sample of 44 Qatari-listed companies throughout 2013–2019. A panel cross-sectional data technique using the E-views program was used to analyze the data. The study results show there is a positive and significant impact of cash flows from operating CFO activities on SV, indicating that the higher change in CFO increases stock volatility. This means that operating cash flows give significant information to investors, and it is reflected in the stock price movements directly. Also, the cash flow from CFF financing activities has a positive and significant effect on SV. This means that CFF affects stock prices, causing greater changes and fluctuation in stock returns. This is because one of the major components of CFF is dividends, which affect directly stock prices and stock returns. In contrast, there is an insignificant effect of CFI on SV, which may indicate that investors do not build their investment decisions based on CFI. Accordingly, the cash flow from investing activities failed to explain the stock volatility of the listed Qatari companies.
-
Does stock ownership impact liquidity and dividends?
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 15, 2018 Issue #3 pp. 111-121 Views: 2024 Downloads: 463 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThis study investigates the interactions among stock ownership, liquidity and dividends in the UK stock market over the period 2002–2016. Using different liquidity measures, it is shown that stocks with higher levels of free float (institutional ownership) are associated with higher (lower) levels of liquidity. In addition, a positive and significant relation is found between institutional ownership and dividend payout policy, which, as a result, highlights the comparative tax advantages that UK institutions have for dividend income. These relations hold even after controlling for firm-specific characteristics. Finally, a negative relation is found between dividends and liquidity, implying that investors with less (more) liquid stocks are more (less) likely to receive dividend payments.

