Models on providing food security: case of Ukraine


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Providing food security is a top issue of agricultural economics in a global scale. Although Ukraine helps other countries become more food secure through its exports of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower, low per capita income levels create challenges for Ukrainians to keep their diet nutrition balance in animal food basket. The research objective supposed applying mathematical apparatus to support solving this problem. The offered consumption optimization model has been developed to ensure inelastic customers’ food preferences by animal products subject to income and calories constraints. The proposed econometric models have been designed to project broiler, pork, eggs, milk, and beef productions. Complex implementation of the set mathematical models maintained the tool to analyze scenarios by expected export/import and demands for grain and oilseed crops used for feed in animal husbandry. The results of this research provide state authorities, livestock and poultry producers, Ukrainian consumers and other interested parties with management guidance focused on developing animal husbandry in the presence of income, as well as animal product price variability.

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    • Table 1. Data to consumption optimization model
    • Table 2. Calculated changes (%) in animal food consumption
    • Table 3. Regression results for animal production
    • Table 4. Changes in feed use (%)
    • Table 5. Evaluation of net export/import (%)