The data science tools for research of emigration processes in Ukraine


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The process of world globalization, labor, and academic mobility, the visa-free regime with the EU countries have caused a significant revival of migration processes in Ukraine. However, there is still the research gap in the most informative, and, at the same time, accurate method of the assessment and forecasting of the migration flows. Thus, the object of research is migration processes (mostly emphasizing the emigration flows). The motives, causes of emigration processes, and their relationship with the economic state were analyzed. The impact factors of external labor migration on the economy of the host countries were revealed, particularly the negative and positive impacts of emigration on the socio-economic situation in Ukraine and the migration attitude of Ukrainians were assessed.
The main result of study is further development of the econometric model for forecasting the number of emigrants from Ukraine to other countries in the nearest future. The model considers the factors of minimum wage lavel in Ukraine, the number of open vacancies in the countries of Eastern Europe, and the level of competition for jobs. According to the results of forecasting based on Maple computer algebra system and Microsoft Power BI analytical platform, by the end of 2019, the number of emigrants from Ukraine supposed to be the largest in the last four years and to reach the estimates in the range from 2,444 to 2,550 million people, which may indicate a new third wave of emigration processes.

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    • Figure 1. Average salaries in some European countries
    • Figure 2. Visualization of the values of the ranking of happiness among some European countries
    • Figure 3. The number of the Ukrainian diaspora in the world and its visualization in Power BI
    • Figure 4. Practical realization of finding the predictive function by the method of splines extrapolation
    • Figure 5. Graphical interpretation in the Maple system of the forecasting of Ukrainian emigrants number
    • Figure 6. The number of Ukrainian emigrants and visualization the forecasting process in Power BI
    • Table 1. Key factors of migration processes
    • Table 2. Correlation matrix (EViews screen result) for the dependence between the immigrants in the EU from Ukraine (IM) and the set of the external factors
    • Table 3. Correlation matrix (EViews screen result) for the dependence between the emigrants from Ukraine (EM) and the set of the internal factors
    • Conceptualization
      Andrii Roskladka
    • Data curation
      Andrii Roskladka
    • Investigation
      Andrii Roskladka
    • Software
      Andrii Roskladka
    • Visualization
      Andrii Roskladka
    • Methodology
      Nataliia Roskladka
    • Writing – original draft
      Nataliia Roskladka, Andriy Stavytskyy
    • Writing – review & editing
      Anatolii Karpuk, Ganna Kharlamova
    • Formal Analysis
      Andriy Stavytskyy
    • Funding acquisition
      Ganna Kharlamova
    • Project administration
      Ganna Kharlamova
    • Supervision
      Ganna Kharlamova