Assessment and forecasting of Ukraine’s financial security: Choice of alternatives

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Financial security of a country is an integral part of its economic security and the basis of national security. The paper aims to assess and forecast the level of Ukraine’s financial security using two methodological approaches (the existing one and the authors’ elaboration) to choose the best alternative. The first one is based on the Methodology of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine. The alternative one has been developed as a multiplicative model of non-linear convolution of relevant direct and indirect impact indicators, considering the opportunity and risk, which is based on a combination of a power function and the Harrington method. A database of input indicators was formed with further differentiation according to their impact on Ukraine’s financial security. The research results demonstrated that during 2013–2019 Ukraine’s financial security integrated index was cyclical and constantly changing. A comparison of the existing methodology and the developed model demonstrated a certain discrepancy between the obtained results. It was substantiated that the proposed multiplicative non-linear convolution model for assessing and forecasting the state’s financial security is more relevant, includes current indicators sorted by their direct and indirect impact, and adjusts them according to the risk of impact on overall security in the country.

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    • Figure 1. Stages of implementing the model to assess a country’s financial security
    • Figure 2. Dynamics of changes in the components of Ukraine’s financial security for 2013–2019
    • Figure 3. Dynamics of changes in the integrated index of Ukraine’s financial security for 2013–2019
    • Figure 4. Scale types for qualitative measurement of results
    • Figure 5. Exponential smoothing of the financial security forecast level
    • Figure 6. Normal probability plot
    • Table 1. Integrated index of the general level of Ukraine’s financial security and its components for 2013–2019
    • Table 2. Input indicators for the model for assessing Ukraine’s financial security by influencing areas
    • Table 3. Determining the rank of direct impact indicators using the method of principal components
    • Table 4. Priority of financial security assessment indicators
    • Table 5. Normalized direct impact indicators in terms of assessing Ukraine’s financial security
    • Table 6. Normalized indirect impact indicators in the context of assessing Ukraine’s financial security
    • Table 7. Interpretation limits of the results of assessing a country’s financial security using the multiplicative non-linear convolution model
    • Table 8. Integral summary assessment of the level of financial security in Ukraine
    • Table 9. Indicators of actual and forecast values of the level of Ukraine’s financial security
    • Table 10. Comparison of the results of assessing Ukraine’s financial security using two methodologies
    • Table A1. Formulas of a fuzzy-logic approach to assessing indicators in terms of the risk of their impact on the overall level of financial security
    • Data curation
      Ihor Rekunenko
    • Formal Analysis
      Ihor Rekunenko, Natalia Nebaba, Oksana Levkovych
    • Investigation
      Ihor Rekunenko, Natalia Nebaba
    • Resources
      Ihor Rekunenko, Natalia Nebaba, Oksana Levkovych, Svitlana Chorna
    • Validation
      Ihor Rekunenko, Fedir Zhuravka, Natalia Nebaba
    • Writing – original draft
      Ihor Rekunenko, Svitlana Chorna
    • Conceptualization
      Fedir Zhuravka
    • Project administration
      Fedir Zhuravka
    • Supervision
      Fedir Zhuravka
    • Writing – review & editing
      Fedir Zhuravka
    • Software
      Natalia Nebaba, Oksana Levkovych, Svitlana Chorna
    • Methodology
      Oksana Levkovych, Svitlana Chorna
    • Visualization
      Oksana Levkovych, Svitlana Chorna