Logistics potential to ensure the resilience of the Ukrainian economic system facing global challenges

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The aim of this paper is to assess the logistics potential to ensure the resilience of the economic system of Ukraine in the face of global challenges. The methods used in the study include: structural-dynamic, determinological, correlation analysis, index method, graphical and cartographic methods. The calculations were based on open data from analytical studies on the development of transport and logistics, as well as data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The results of the study confirmed the hypothesis that high logistics potential, which is determined by the effectiveness of customs and border control, the quality of trade and transport infrastructure, the ease of organization of delivery, and the quality of logistics services, is the driver of the resilience of socio-economic systems of countries. The reduction of the logistical potential of the economic system of Ukraine in the conditions of a full-scale war is shown. This decrease resulted from blocked operation of a number of logistics routes and branches of the transport and logistics sphere and destroyed transport infrastructure objects as a result of hostilities and missile attacks.
A change in the vector of export-import flows and their reorientation by means of transport was noted. Drivers of strengthening the logistics potential of the Ukrainian economic system are the transformation of the transport and logistics system, deepening cooperation with neighboring countries, systematic state support for the development of freight transportation by rail, compliance with European standards, and creation of Ukrzaliznytsia’s own freight carrier company that will work outside Ukraine.

Acknowledgment
This study was carried out within the framework of the international project “Increasing the capacity of freight transportation infrastructure on EU-Ukraine borders” (№ 22220189) implemented under the Visegrad Grant+ Programme.

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    • Figure 1. Logistics Performance Index and the Global Resilience Index, 2022
    • Figure 2. Change in the role of certain types of services in the economy of Ukraine for 2013–2021
    • Figure 3. Dynamics and attractiveness of domestic and foreign investment by type of services in Ukraine
    • Figure 4. Coefficient of the shadow economy in the transportation and logistics sector, % in Gross Added Value
    • Figure 5. Dynamics of cargo transshipment by types of transport from December 2021 to July 2023
    • Figure 6. Reorientation of cargo flows from Ukraine between seaports in conditions of full-scale war
    • Figure A1. The infrastructure of overland multimodal freight transportation in Ukraine
    • Table 1. Structure of goods export of Ukraine in January-August 2023 (the war lasts 1.5 years), compared to January-August 2021 (the pre-war period)
    • Table A1. LQ by the number of active business entities in the field of transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities, 2015–2020
    • Table A2. Depreciation rate of fixed assets and intangible assets of enterprises by type of economic activity “Cargo road transport, provision of services for transportation of goods” (Code 49.4 according to KVED-2010)
    • Table A3. Fleet of wagons of Ukrzaliznytsia JSC as of January 21, 2022
    • Conceptualization
      Maryana Melnyk, Iryna Leshchukh
    • Data curation
      Maryana Melnyk, Iryna Leshchukh, Khrystyna Prytula
    • Formal Analysis
      Maryana Melnyk, Iryna Leshchukh, Khrystyna Prytula, Uliana Ivaniuk
    • Investigation
      Maryana Melnyk, Iryna Leshchukh, Khrystyna Prytula
    • Methodology
      Maryana Melnyk, Iryna Leshchukh, Khrystyna Prytula
    • Resources
      Maryana Melnyk, Iryna Leshchukh, Khrystyna Prytula, Uliana Ivaniuk, Solomiia Ohinok
    • Software
      Maryana Melnyk, Iryna Leshchukh, Solomiia Ohinok
    • Supervision
      Maryana Melnyk
    • Validation
      Maryana Melnyk, Iryna Leshchukh, Khrystyna Prytula
    • Writing – original draft
      Maryana Melnyk, Iryna Leshchukh, Khrystyna Prytula, Uliana Ivaniuk
    • Writing – review & editing
      Maryana Melnyk, Khrystyna Prytula, Solomiia Ohinok
    • Visualization
      Iryna Leshchukh, Solomiia Ohinok
    • Funding acquisition
      Khrystyna Prytula
    • Project administration
      Khrystyna Prytula