Budget deficit and CO₂ emissions in Morocco: An asymmetric NARDL-based analysis

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
In emerging economies, the integration of environmental considerations into fiscal policy analysis has emerged as a priority of sustainable development strategies. This paper seeks to investigate the asymmetric short- and long-term impacts of the budget deficit on CO₂ emissions per capita in Morocco from 1974 to 2022. A nonlinear ARDL model is employed to identify asymmetric fiscal dynamics over the period under study. The estimation results indicate that, in the short run, an increase in the budget deficit immediately and significantly reduces CO₂ emissions per capita (−0.0046; p < 0.05), while the delayed effect of this increase significantly increases emissions in the following period (0.0068; p < 0.05), revealing opposing dynamics and instability in the short-term adjustment process. Conversely, the immediate and delayed effects of negative changes in the deficit do not exert statistically meaningful short-run effects (p > 0.10). In the long run, both increases and decreases in the budget deficit reduce emissions (−0.0075; p < 0.05; −0.0171; p < 0.01, respectively), with a stronger effect associated with deficit reductions. The results also show that urbanization significantly reduces emissions (–0.0168; p < 0.05), whereas fossil fuel consumption increases them (0.0003; p < 0.05). In contrast, GDP per capita, along with inward FDI inflows, fails to demonstrate statistical significance over the long-term horizon (p > 0.05). These results underscore the nonlinear and asymmetric nature of the fiscal policy and environmental quality nexus, suggesting that prudent budget management can promote sustainable environmental outcomes.

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    • Figure 1. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)
    • Figure 2. Correlogram of residuals
    • Figure 3. Jarque–Bera test
    • Figure 4. CUSUM test
    • Figure 5. CUSUM of squares test
    • Table 1. Description of model variables
    • Table 2. Results of the unit root tests (ADF)
    • Table 3. NARDL model estimation
    • Table 4. Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test
    • Table 5. Bounds cointegration test
    • Table 6. Coefficient symmetry tests
    • Table 7. Short-term coefficients
    • Table 8. Long-term coefficients
    • Conceptualization
      Mohammed Hennach
    • Data curation
      Mohammed Hennach
    • Formal Analysis
      Mohammed Hennach, Abdellah Echaoui
    • Funding acquisition
      Mohammed Hennach
    • Investigation
      Mohammed Hennach
    • Methodology
      Mohammed Hennach
    • Project administration
      Mohammed Hennach, Abdellah Echaoui
    • Resources
      Mohammed Hennach
    • Software
      Mohammed Hennach
    • Visualization
      Mohammed Hennach
    • Writing – original draft
      Mohammed Hennach
    • Writing – review & editing
      Mohammed Hennach, Abdellah Echaoui
    • Supervision
      Abdellah Echaoui
    • Validation
      Abdellah Echaoui