The internet and e-commerce diffusion in European countries (modeling at the example of Austria, Poland and Ukraine)


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This article analyzes the influence of Internet and e-commerce diffusion in the development of European countries. Conclusions about the faster spread of Internet technologies in the modern world, especially in developing countries, due to the achievement of so-called “saturation points” by developed countries of the world (e-commerce markets in Ukraine and Poland are at the stage of formation and active growth) have been made. The purpose of this article is to construct an economic and mathematical toolkit for investigating the impact of the Internet and e-commerce on indicators of economic development of the country. The methods of scientific analysis, description and synthesis, modeling and statistical analysis are used in the research. Models of technologies diffusion have been considered, and as a basis, the distribution of the Internet in Poland, Austria and Ukraine is forecasted.
Findings suggest that Internet technology spread has a significant impact on the development of e-commerce, and Internet development in different countries of the world. This study uses the classification of countries according to the World Bank Country Classification, which, since 2005, has ranked countries by GDP per capita into four groups:
1) low-income;
2) lower-middle-income;
3) upper-middle-income;
4) high-income.
It has been found that the pace of Internet technology and broadband Internet access spread is a lot higher in low-income countries due to the later beginning of the diffusion process, while in the high-income countries, the peak of Internet development has passed and the technology spread has slowed down.

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    • Figure 1. Interconnection of the Internet cost and GDP in Africa
    • Figure 2. Correlation of the Internet cost and IEF in African countries
    • Figure 3. The forecast of Internet diffusion for different groups of countries for the period up to 2022
    • Figure 4. The forecast of Internet diffusion for Ukraine, Poland and Austria for the period up to 2025
    • Table 1. Indicators of Internet cost, GDP per person and Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) in the context of some African countries, 2017
    • Table 2. The estimation of the parameters of the Internet distribution model and broadband Internet access by groups of countries (per 100 population)
    • Table 3. The indicators of Internet distribution and broadband Internet access in some countries (per 100 people)
    • Table 4. The estimation of parameters of the Internet distribution model in the researched countries (per 100 people)