The dynamics of familiarity bias during extreme events: Investor responses across industries

  • 224 Views
  • 54 Downloads

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

The efficient market hypothesis is struggling to explain market behavior during rare, high-impact events. In such uncertain times, familiarity guides the decisions, allowing the brain to rely on subconscious processing for optimal outcomes. Therefore, this research aimed to examine the relationship between elevated familiarity bias and abnormal returns during rare events. Data were collected from all companies listed and active on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 1997 to 2020. A systematic sampling method was used to establish the sample criteria, which led to a total of 5,615 observations derived from the number of trading days over 23 years across nine industries on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The data collected were analyzed using the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model, prospect theory and extending the Fama and French three-factor model with the addition of a psychological factor. The results show that familiarity bias behavior does not uniformly occur across all industries in Indonesia during rare events. The industries negatively impacted by these events include agriculture, consumer goods, trade services and investment, finance, basic industry, chemicals, mining, miscellaneous industries, property, real estate and building construction at values of –0.0847, –0.0946, –0.0721, -0.0405, –0.0717, –0.1258, –0.024, and –0.0805, respectively. A positive impact was only found in the infrastructure, utilities, and transportation industry at 0.0028. In conclusion, stock market behavior also affects the economy from a behavioral finance perspective.

view full abstract hide full abstract
    • Figure 1. Familiarity bias per quartile returns
    • Figure 2. Familiarity bias in buy and sell imbalances based on rare events and portfolio categories
    • Table 1. Summary statistics
    • Table 2. Summary statistics of rare events
    • Table 3. The results of hypothesis testing obtained through regression analysis
    • Table 4. The estimation results of familiarity, rare events and interactions
    • Table 5. Sub-sampling regression analysis results
    • Conceptualization
      Dedi Hariyanto, Rayenda Khresna Brahmana, Wendy Wendy
    • Data curation
      Dedi Hariyanto, Rayenda Khresna Brahmana, Wendy Wendy
    • Formal Analysis
      Dedi Hariyanto, Rayenda Khresna Brahmana, Wendy Wendy
    • Funding acquisition
      Dedi Hariyanto
    • Investigation
      Dedi Hariyanto
    • Resources
      Dedi Hariyanto, Rayenda Khresna Brahmana
    • Software
      Dedi Hariyanto, Rayenda Khresna Brahmana, Wendy Wendy
    • Supervision
      Dedi Hariyanto, Rayenda Khresna Brahmana, Wendy Wendy
    • Validation
      Dedi Hariyanto
    • Visualization
      Dedi Hariyanto
    • Writing – original draft
      Dedi Hariyanto
    • Writing – review & editing
      Dedi Hariyanto, Rayenda Khresna Brahmana
    • Methodology
      Rayenda Khresna Brahmana, Wendy Wendy
    • Project administration
      Wendy Wendy