Exchange rate volatility and its impact on foreign trade: Evidence from Peru in a period of global and domestic turbulence (2019-2023)

The study reveals the peculiarities of modern global production development due to global value chains (GVCs) formation that allow both developing and developed countries to integrate successfully into international production networks. This research is aimed at identifing key factors responsible for the upstream movement of Ukraine through GVCs and determining locations for production capacities, as well as at developing an institutional mechanism for facilitating the successful integration of domestic producers into GVSs. To achieve this, a multiple linear regression reflecting the interrelation between manufacturing industry share in exports value added and the institutional and economic indicators is analyzed. Three scientific hypotheses are tested and two of them are verified. The multiple linear regression results disclose a significant impact of institutional factors on the country’s ability to participate in GVCs and justify the first hypothesis, namely the higher the government effectiveness and regulatory quality are, the higher the manufacturing value added in exports is. Better governance and administrative functions performance enhance companies’ export potential. The model also verifies the second hypothesis that emphasizes better ability to join GVCs with low and medium technology product than with a high technology one. The model outputs contradict the third hypothesis on the protectionism: high tariffs for imports significantly matter in exports promotion. However, this result should be considered while accounting for the global trend of trade liberalization and Ukraine’s international agreements. The article proposes policy recommendations for improving the positions of Ukraine in GVCs.

In the context of neo-protectionism and in terms of WTO membership, regulatory mechanisms for promoting the national producer and country’s external expansion require an institutional basis. This paper primarily aims to explore the resource and institutional component in promoting Ukraine’s exports to Chinese market and to identify the level of Ukraine’s export promotion system effectiveness based on combinatorial approach, which includes the calculation of quantitative indicators of foreign trade in the form of international production and marketing cooperation and estimation of qualitative parameters of export promotion effectiveness. The empirical findings indicate following: high dynamism of increasing mutual trade volume; enlargement of trade flows asymmetry caused by the negative trade balance of Ukrainian economy; limited list of commodity groups of Ukrainian exports in mutual trade with China with stable relative advantages; dominance of low-value-added commodities among export priority groups; absence of beneficial effect of such a factor as “long-term partnerships” in the mutual trade flow. The paper reveals that national export promotion system in Ukraine can be characterized by low efficiency and strong potential for growth. The authors emphasize the importance of intensifying the projects and mechanisms of financial and investment support for exporters with increasing the level of their innovative orientation. Prospects for further research in this area are as follows: the assessment of macroeconomic effects from the introduction of export promotion tools for the national economy of countries of origin of goods and importing countries; detection of anticompetitive risks in the implementation of selective support programs for exporters.

This study aims to examine the impact of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on Nepal’s long-term economic growth. It uses secondary data from 1989/90 to 2021/22 collected from various economic surveys of the Ministry of Finance of Nepal. Descriptive and explanatory research designs are used in this study. The trace, max-eigen tests, and fully modified least square methods search the long-run co-integration and impact between response and predictor variables. Trace and max-eigen tests consistently point toward the long-run co-integration between dependent (gross domestic product) and independent (import, export, total trade, and foreign direct investment) variables. Exports and imports are found to be negative and statistically significant to explain Nepal’s economic growth. One unit increase in exports results in a 0.748 unit decrease in Nepal’s economic growth. Similarly, total trade volume and foreign direct investment positively impact economic growth. Each unit increase in foreign direct investment results in a 0.0036 unit increase in GDP in Nepal. Foreign trade has a multiplier effect on Nepal’s GDP growth. The 76.35 percent variation in economic growth depends upon total foreign trade volume, exports, imports, and foreign direct investment. To promote sustainable economic growth, policymakers should prioritize policies encouraging increased total foreign trade and foreign direct investment while carefully managing the potential negative impact of excessive reliance on import dynamics.