Model for preventing bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises in force majeure circumstances

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Given rapid changes in global financial and economic processes caused by rapid transformations in the institutional environment and the onset of force majeure circumstances, there is a need to develop new approaches to assessing the level of bankruptcy. Most models that estimate the probability of enterprise bankruptcy are based on internal information, while external information is used to a limited extent. The growing threat of force majeure requires using not only the existing discrete models but also those that consider the external environment of enterprises when assessing the probability of bankruptcy. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for preventingbankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises in force majeure conditions based on the use of artificial intelligence methods ‒ the theory of fuzzy logic– which allows for a comprehensive assessment of bankruptcy prevention. The paper uses analytical data from the World Bank. The model consists of interrelated groups of factors: organizational, informational and legal, and economic. As a result, a comprehensive indicator of prevention of corporate bankruptcies (D) was calculated on a neurolinguistic scale from 0 to 10; the indicator was estimated for Ukraine (5.644) and Romania (4.520) (as countries close in terms of economic and geopolitical development). The simulation results show that the level of prevention of enterprises’ bankruptcy in Ukraine falls into the average interval.

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    • Figure 1. Increase in the number of bankruptcies in certain countries, % (the percentage of increase in the number of bankruptcies in the fourth quarter of 2020 by individual countries of the world (2007 is taken as 100%))
    • Figure 2. Stages of building a model for preventing the bankruptcy of enterprises
    • Figure 3. Membership functions of “y2 – index of legal responsibility of management”
    • Figure 4. The tree of logical conclusion for hierarchical relationships of factors
    • Figure 5. Management measures to prevent the bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises under the force majeure circumstances
    • Table 1. Knowledge bases and systems of fuzzy logic equations for dependence (4)
    • Table 2. Systematization of factors for the proposed model (D)
    • Table 3. Output data for modeling the level of prevention of corporate bankruptcies (D)
    • Conceptualization
      Rodion Poliakov, Ivan Zayukov
    • Formal Analysis
      Rodion Poliakov, Ivan Zayukov
    • Funding acquisition
      Rodion Poliakov
    • Investigation
      Rodion Poliakov
    • Resources
      Rodion Poliakov, Ivan Zayukov
    • Software
      Rodion Poliakov
    • Validation
      Rodion Poliakov, Ivan Zayukov
    • Writing – review & editing
      Rodion Poliakov, Ivan Zayukov
    • Data curation
      Ivan Zayukov
    • Methodology
      Ivan Zayukov
    • Project administration
      Ivan Zayukov
    • Visualization
      Ivan Zayukov
    • Writing – original draft
      Ivan Zayukov