Convergence and divergence patterns in Ukraine’s household solar energy development: Policy implications

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The study examines regional convergence and divergence in the development of household solar energy in Ukraine during 2016–2022 and explores implications for adaptive energy management and policy coordination. Using β- and σ-convergence models, the analysis investigates whether regional household solar electricity generation demonstrates tendencies toward structural alignment or, conversely, follows autonomous trajectories that indicate the absence of a common attractor. The results reveal a lack of both beta- and sigma-convergence, implying that initial regional conditions exerted little influence on subsequent development and that disparities across regions have persisted or even deepened over time. These findings suggest a divergent and spatially fragmented pattern of solar energy expansion, where regional dynamics are determined not only by differences in economic and institutional capacity but also by disruptions linked to the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. The study emphasizes the need for a more adaptive and integrated energy policy that recognizes regional heterogeneity, supports decentralized renewable energy deployment, and strengthens coordination between national and local authorities. Such an approach would enhance the effectiveness of planning and implementation of household renewable energy programs, contributing to a more balanced and resilient low-carbon transition in Ukraine.

Acknowledgments
The publication was prepared in the framework of the research project “Formation of economic mechanisms to increase energy efficiency and provide sustainable development of renewable energy in Ukraine’s households” (No. 0122U001233), funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine.

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    • Figure 1. Standard deviations of electricity generation by household solar power plants in Ukraine in 2016–2022
    • Figure 2. Beta-convergence modelling of Ukraine’s regions in electricity generation by household solar power plants (Model 2)
    • Figure 3. Beta-convergence modelling of Ukraine’s regions in electricity generation by household solar power plants (Model 3)
    • Figure 4. Sigma-convergence modelling of Ukrainian regions in electricity generation by household solar power plants (Model 4)
    • Table 1. Electricity volumes generated by household solar power plants in Ukraine’s regions in 2016–2022, million kWh
    • Conceptualization
      Tetiana Kurbatova, Iryna Sotnyk, Oleksandra Kubatko
    • Funding acquisition
      Tetiana Kurbatova, Oleksandra Kubatko, Uliana Pysmenna
    • Investigation
      Tetiana Kurbatova, Iryna Sotnyk, Oleksandra Kubatko, Olha Prokopenko, Uliana Pysmenna, Yevhenii Kozmenko
    • Methodology
      Tetiana Kurbatova, Iryna Sotnyk, Oleksandra Kubatko
    • Project administration
      Tetiana Kurbatova
    • Supervision
      Tetiana Kurbatova, Iryna Sotnyk, Oleksandra Kubatko
    • Writing – original draft
      Tetiana Kurbatova, Iryna Sotnyk, Oleksandra Kubatko
    • Writing – review & editing
      Tetiana Kurbatova, Iryna Sotnyk, Olha Prokopenko, Uliana Pysmenna, Yevhenii Kozmenko
    • Data curation
      Iryna Sotnyk, Olha Prokopenko, Uliana Pysmenna
    • Resources
      Iryna Sotnyk, Olha Prokopenko, Uliana Pysmenna, Yevhenii Kozmenko
    • Software
      Oleksandra Kubatko
    • Validation
      Oleksandra Kubatko
    • Formal Analysis
      Olha Prokopenko, Uliana Pysmenna, Yevhenii Kozmenko
    • Visualization
      Olha Prokopenko, Yevhenii Kozmenko