Analysis of production, fiscal, and external sector channels of economic growth in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Given the instability of global energy markets and recurring price shocks, it is increasingly important to assess the sustainability of economic growth in countries heavily dependent on oil and gas, such as Kazakhstan. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the oil and gas sector’s production, fiscal and external sector transmission channels on Kazakhstan’s economic growth during 2010–2024. The empirical base includes official data from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, the Ministry of Finance, and the World Bank, as well as economic indicators related to exchange-rate dynamics and inflation. The study employs a combination of cointegration analysis, vector error correction models (VECM), and short-term ordinary least squares (OLS) specifications. The results show that oil production and GDP are linked by a stable long-term relationship, with the error-correction term indicating that about 24% of deviations from equilibrium are eliminated per year. Gas production emerges as a key short-term growth factor: a one-thousand-ton increase in gas production is associated with a 5.26 billion tenge (11.8 million USD) in GDP (p = 0.002). Tax revenues from the oil and gas sector exert a moderate positive effect on economic dynamics (p = 0.065), reflecting fiscal sensitivity to external conditions. The external sector channel exhibits the strongest short-term effect: a one-unit depreciation of tenge is associated with an average increase of 2.61 × 10⁵ tenge in nominal GDP (p < 0.01). Overall, the results indicate that Kazakhstan’s economic growth is shaped by long-term dependence on production and short-term transmission of price and financial shocks.

Acknowledgments
This paper has been funded by the Science Committee MSHE RK (Grant “Strategy for the structural and technological modernization of the basic sectors of the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, taking into account ESG approaches: criteria, implementation mechanisms, and forecast scenarios” BR24993089).

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    • Figure 1. Stages of research
    • Figure 2. PACF GDP
    • Figure 3. ACF GDP
    • Table 1. Description of variables used in the empirical analysis
    • Table 2. Short-term OLS models of the impact of oil and gas factors on economic growth
    • Table 3. Dynamics of economic and oil and gas indicators in Kazakhstan for 2010–2024
    • Table 4. Correlation matrix of key variables for 2010–2024
    • Table 5. ADF unit root tests (levels)
    • Table 6. Results of the Johansen cointegration test for GDP and oil production
    • Table 7. Vector error-correction model (VECM)
    • Table 8. OLS regression for the production channel (determinants of GDP)
    • Table 9. OLS regression for the fiscal channel (determinants of GDP)
    • Table 10. OLS regression for the external sector channel (determinants of GDP)
    • Conceptualization
      Peter Karácsony, Assel Bekbossinova, Medet Konyrbekov, Vivien Valko
    • Data curation
      Peter Karácsony, Vivien Valko
    • Investigation
      Peter Karácsony, Aliya Uralova, Assel Bekbossinova, Medet Konyrbekov
    • Methodology
      Peter Karácsony, Aliya Uralova, Assel Bekbossinova, Medet Konyrbekov, Vivien Valko
    • Project administration
      Peter Karácsony, Aliya Uralova, Assel Bekbossinova, Medet Konyrbekov
    • Resources
      Peter Karácsony, Vivien Valko
    • Software
      Peter Karácsony, Aliya Uralova, Assel Bekbossinova, Medet Konyrbekov, Vivien Valko
    • Supervision
      Peter Karácsony, Aliya Uralova, Assel Bekbossinova, Medet Konyrbekov
    • Validation
      Peter Karácsony, Assel Bekbossinova, Medet Konyrbekov
    • Writing – original draft
      Peter Karácsony, Aliya Uralova, Assel Bekbossinova, Medet Konyrbekov, Vivien Valko
    • Writing – review & editing
      Peter Karácsony, Aliya Uralova, Assel Bekbossinova, Medet Konyrbekov
    • Formal Analysis
      Aliya Uralova, Assel Bekbossinova, Vivien Valko
    • Funding acquisition
      Aliya Uralova, Assel Bekbossinova, Medet Konyrbekov
    • Visualization
      Vivien Valko