Hanna Filatova

Nowadays one of the relevant problems of economic development of Ukraine is the excessive increasing of the public debt that has a number of negative consequences for the financial system of the country. The article is devoted to the research of state’s debt sustainability concept. Special attention is paid to the development of an effective system of debt sustainability management. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical bases of the state’s debt sustainability, investigate scientific and methodological approaches to its management, analyze the public debt and debt sustainability of Ukraine. In order to achieve that goal, the following scientific methods were used: analysis and generalization, decomposition analysis, comparison and compilation. The authors analyzed the structure of the debt sustainability management system: objects, subjects, key principles, objectives, methods, instruments, etc. The list of key indicators of debt sustainability was substantiated and the authors compared their normative values in Ukraine and in world practice. Besides, the state and structure of public debt and the ratio of government debt to GDP were scrutinized. The obtained results proved the debt crisis deepening in Ukraine.

The paper explores theoretical and practical aspects of forecasting the government debt in Ukraine. A visual analysis of changes in the amount of government debt was conducted, which has made it possible to conclude about the deepening of the debt crisis in the country. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is considered as the basic forecasting model; besides, the model work and its diagnostics are estimated. The EViews software package illustrates the procedure for forecasting the Ukrainian government debt for the ARIMA model: the series for stationarity was tested, the time series of monthly government debt was converted into stationary by making a number of transformations and determining model parameters; as a result, the most optimal specification for the ARIMA model was chosen.
Based on the simulated time series, it is concluded that ARIMA tools can be used to predict the government debt values.

One of the pressing problems in the modern development of the world financial system is an excessive increase in state debt, which has many negative consequences for the financial system of any country. At the same time, special attention should be paid to developing an effective state debt management system based on its forecast values. The paper is aimed at determining the level of persistence and forecasting future values of state debt in the short term using time series analysis, i.e., an ARIMA model. The study covers the time series of Ukraine’s state debt data for the period from December 2004 to November 2020. A visual analysis of the dynamics of state debt led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in debt over the past six years. Using the Hurst exponent, the paper provides the calculated value of the level of persistence in time series data. Based on the obtained indicator, a conclusion was made on the confirmation of expediency to use autoregressive models for predicting future dynamics of Ukraine’s state debt. Using the EViews software, the procedure for forecasting Ukraine’s state debt by utilizing the ARIMA model was illustrated, i.e., the series was tested for stationarity, the time series of monthly state debt data were converted to stationary, the model parameters were determined and, as a result, the most optimal specification of the ARIMA model was selected.

Sovereign wealth funds accumulate the largest resources to bridge the financial gap under the Sustainable Development Goals. The basic mechanism for accelerating sustainability progress is the effort of sovereign wealth funds to incorporate environmental, social, governance and ethical criteria and targets of these Goals disclosed in their sustainability reports. This study aims to develop a methodology for assessing the Sustainability Transparency Index in a sample of sovereign wealth funds, as well as to investigate how this transparency is influenced by the size of funds’ assets and sustainability progress with a cross-regional comparison. Five groups of sustainability disclosure metrics, such as the main pillars of novel Sustainability Transparency Index, were tested and analyzed for 91 funds using binary variables and normalization method. Three hypotheses regarding the statistical association of funds’ sustainability transparency index with the size of the funds’ assets, countries’ sustainability progress, and the region of a fund were checked for 87 funds using multiple regression. The overall results of the Sustainability Transparency Index show an insufficient level of funds’ transparency. Sustainability disclosure in 57% of funds surveyed should be fully enhanced in terms of greater sustainability transparency. There is strong evidence of the correlation between the volume of funds’ assets and sustainability transparency as well as the leadership of European funds in a cross-regional comparative study. However, data on the progress of the country’s sustainability and the funds’ Sustainability Transparency Index are limited and can be used as evidence of the insufficient role of fund transparency in promoting sustainability.

Public debt can attract funds to finance public needs and stabilize the country’s economic development. This study aims to analyze the relationship between public debt and economic development considering the war actions in Ukraine. This paper uses bibliometric analysis, comprising in-built Scopus and WoS instruments, VosViewer, and Google Trends tools. The overall results show the close relationship between public debt, economic development, and war (armed conflict) concepts. The publications were examined according to key features: containing the keywords from the green and red clusters; covering the period 2015–2018 and 2022; and discussing public debt in Central and South-Eastern Europe. This improved the theoretical and methodological approach to the bibliometric analysis of public debt. Moreover, the study identified risks (based on selected scientific publications) to which the primary attention should be paid during the war and post-war periods in Ukraine: currency and demographic risks. Key recommendations were provided to ensure debt security during the war and post-war periods. However, the given recommendations should be implemented within the framework of the Recovery Plan of Ukraine, which would improve the credit rating and reliability of the state.

The Crimea annexation and the military aggression of the Russian Federation, which first began in some territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale war on February 24, 2022, resulted in heavy losses of life and a humanitarian crisis, exacerbating economic, political and social instability. To restore Ukraine’s economy, all businesses, including hospitality (hotel and restaurant business) sector, should continue functioning, though it is a challenging but crucial task. The paper aims to analyze the state of the hospitality market in the current war conditions in Ukraine and assess the possibilities of its restoration and development. An online survey was conducted among 282 representatives of the hospitality business in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Ternopil, and Zakarpattia regions. Based on the results, in 2022, almost 23% of hospitality industry representatives suspended their activities, and 54% functioned only partially. Many surveyed hotels and restaurants (36%) have gradually changed and adapted their business strategies. For more than half of the hospitality representatives, expenses increased by 20-50%, and profits dropped by more than 20%. The critical consequences of the full-scale war for the Ukrainian hospitality market are as follows: disruption of supply chains, reduction in consumers’ purchasing power, changes in consumer demand, shortage of certain types of products, shortage of personnel, and business unprofitability.