Dependence of a country’s investment attractiveness on the level of debt security: Methodology for the quantitative assessment

The purpose of the article is to study the current problems of investment processes in the conditions of transformation of the Ukrainian economy. The relevance of the research was due to significant changes in political, economic and social processes of Ukraine. The research was conducted using general scientific and special methods and methods of research, such as theoretical analysis and synthesis, methods of grouping, modeling, comparison, as well as methods of systematization and scientific synthesis, in particular on materials: Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine, research conducted by the Doing Business Group of the World Bank, rating of Moody’s Investors Service, rating of Global Competitiveness Index 2017/2018 and of European Business Association. The most actual factors of influence of political, economic, criminal and legislative processes on investment potential of Ukraine were analyzed. It was defined that the economic of Ukraine is characterized by the deficiency of capital, progressive technologies, mutual integration of scientific and industrial spheres, developed management and high-tech production and the recommendations to create favorable conditions for investment were made. Positive changes were noted in creating a legal framework for the promotion, protection of investments and intensification of investment activity in Ukraine.

One of the pressing problems in the modern development of the world financial system is an excessive increase in state debt, which has many negative consequences for the financial system of any country. At the same time, special attention should be paid to developing an effective state debt management system based on its forecast values. The paper is aimed at determining the level of persistence and forecasting future values of state debt in the short term using time series analysis, i.e., an ARIMA model. The study covers the time series of Ukraine’s state debt data for the period from December 2004 to November 2020. A visual analysis of the dynamics of state debt led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in debt over the past six years. Using the Hurst exponent, the paper provides the calculated value of the level of persistence in time series data. Based on the obtained indicator, a conclusion was made on the confirmation of expediency to use autoregressive models for predicting future dynamics of Ukraine’s state debt. Using the EViews software, the procedure for forecasting Ukraine’s state debt by utilizing the ARIMA model was illustrated, i.e., the series was tested for stationarity, the time series of monthly state debt data were converted to stationary, the model parameters were determined and, as a result, the most optimal specification of the ARIMA model was selected.

Global and crisis transformations result in structural and functional changes in the tourism system, which combines resource potential, infrastructure, tourism entities, institutional structures, and consumers. For Ukraine, with its high tourist potential, tourism development is a significant factor after the crisis recovery of the economy. Overcoming the disparities in the tourism system functioning, shaping optimal business models of its development, increasing the sustainability and efficiency of the tourism entities functioning impose an objective need for investment. Investment attractiveness is one of the key characteristics causing the investor’s interest in financing the project, including the tourist one.
The essence, determinants of influence and characteristic features of investment attractiveness of the Ukrainian tourism system are substantiated. The investment attractiveness of the tourism system is proposed to be considered as a complex feature of conditions and advantages that form its ability to attract investment resources based on the availability of their needs, unique tourist potential, favorable environment for ensuring the efficient functioning of the tourism system and guaranteeing the investor profit and reduced risks of investing.
The article considers basic preconditions to form the investment attractiveness of the tourism system, which include unique strategic opportunities, to shape a favorable institutional environment and provide a background for an investor concerned and a system of guaranteeing the expected result.
Given the need for complex consideration of the tourism system’s investment attractiveness, a methodology based on the calculation of integrated indicators for estimating the effectiveness and prospects for the development of tourism systems in the Ukrainian regions is used. In the method considered, it is proposed to take into account not only financial aspects, but also the resource potential, its development level, the growth rates of tourism entities activities, and the prospects for the tourism system development. In general, indicators and criteria for the tourism system investment attractiveness are classified into four groups: the efficiency of investment, the effectiveness of the tourism system development, the prospects for the tourism system development, the environment and the potential for its development.
According to the method developed, the integral indicator of investment attractiveness of the tourism systems of Ukrainian regions has been calculated, and the regions are differentiated according to the level of investment attractiveness. Estimation of the investment attractiveness of Ukrainian tourism systems allows to determine their rating, differentiate them according to the maturity level of complementary preconditions to form and develop tourist potential and serves as a basis for potential investors in investment decisions-making.
Using the results of determining the level of investment attractiveness of tourism systems of Ukraine’s regions over time will help identify trends, and, accordingly, serve as a guide for potential investors in strategic proposition space of regions which are investment recipients.