Foresight (prevision) of development of the tourist system in Ukraine

  • Received October 30, 2023;
    Accepted December 18, 2023;
    Published December 22, 2023
  • Author(s)
  • DOI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.21(4).2023.52
  • Article Info
    Volume 21 2023, Issue #4, pp. 696-712
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Considering the war in Ukraine, it will be necessary to restore the tourism system. The use of foresight as a means of predicting the future will ensure the formation of conditions for its development. The study aims to assess the functioning of the tourism system in Ukraine under martial law and to develop foresight scenarios for its development. The analysis of the main economic indicators of tourism and hotel entities during the war period indicates potential opportunities (a stable or growing trend). The volume of tax revenues to the state budget in 2023 increased by 15.6%. 2023 hotels’ KPIs (RevPAR, ADR, Occupancy) for the main destinations compared to the same period in 2022 increased by 206.0%, 66.0%, and 44.0%, respectively. The study scans the horizon within which the factors affecting the development of the tourism system are determined and assesses the levels of their potential impact and probability of occurrence. The BANI method is used to identify possible α- and β-scenarios of development, and the matrix method is used to interpret the strategic development directions. Industry factors are combined into four groups: development trends, the state of the market, technologies, innovations, and professional competence of staff. Thus, α- (optimistic) and β- (pessimistic) development scenarios future states in the tourism development. A prognostic vision of the future in a situation of prospective uncertainty makes it possible to determine the factors for mitigating the effects of military actions in the post-war period. It stimulates finding alternatives for strengthening the cohesion of the tourism system.

Acknowledgment
The paper shows the authors’ results within the frameworks of the study, performed in 2021−2023 at Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics at the request of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine “Digital transformation of trade, economic and tourist systems in Ukraine” (state registration number 0121U112231) and “Forecasting the impact of the tourism system on the country’s economy” (state registration number 0122U001559).

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    • Figure 1. Dynamics of tax revenues to the state budget of Ukraine from the entities of the tourism system (for 9 months of 2021–2023), thousand UAH
    • Figure 2. Dynamics of the number of tax payers-subjects of the tourism system of Ukraine (for 9 months of 2021–2023), persons
    • Figure 3. The structure of tax payments by entities of the tourism system of Ukraine (for 9 months of 2023), %
    • Figure 4. Dynamics of investments in the field of hospitality business of Ukraine, 2010–2022 (million UAH)
    • Figure 5. Dynamics of economic indicators of accommodation facilities (hotels) in the main destinations of Ukraine, 2021 – first half of 2023
    • Figure 6. Dynamics of the RevPAR indicator for the main destinations of Ukraine in the period June-August 2022–2023
    • Table 1. Scanning the horizons for the development of the tourism system in Ukraine on a global scale
    • Table 2. Industry factors for the development of the tourism system in Ukraine
    • Table 3. Foresight scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian tourism system based on the BANI concept
    • Formal Analysis
      Myroslava Bosovska, Alla Okhrimenko
    • Methodology
      Myroslava Bosovska, Alla Okhrimenko
    • Project administration
      Myroslava Bosovska, Liudmyla Bovsh
    • Writing – review & editing
      Myroslava Bosovska, Alla Okhrimenko, Nadiya Vedmid
    • Conceptualization
      Margaryta Boiko, Liudmyla Bovsh
    • Investigation
      Margaryta Boiko, Nadiya Vedmid
    • Supervision
      Margaryta Boiko, Nadiya Vedmid
    • Writing – original draft
      Margaryta Boiko, Liudmyla Bovsh
    • Data curation
      Liudmyla Bovsh, Nadiya Vedmid
    • Visualization
      Liudmyla Bovsh, Alla Okhrimenko
    • Resources
      Nadiya Vedmid
    • Validation
      Nadiya Vedmid