Dynamics of tax revenues in the budget of Ukraine and their forecast during the crisis period

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It is extremely important for the budget process to obtain accurate forecasts of potential tax revenues, especially in periods of disruption and crisis. The paper is devoted to the study of dynamics of tax revenues’ volumes in the budget of Ukraine and the forecast of their values during the crisis.
The dynamics of tax revenues in the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine, studied by using randomized R|S-analysis, fractal and probabilistic analyses as well as entropy calculation based on the data on monthly tax revenues for the period 2011–2021, is anti-persistent, fractal-like and unpredictable based on parametric dependencies, simple and complex trends. The topological dimension of the lines of dynamics for tax revenues of all types of taxes is much higher than 1, and the Hirst index indicates either fractal similarity of dynamics or its chaos. The map of dissipation periods of tax revenues in Ukraine, determined on the basis of entropy calculation and periods of negative entropy production according to the dynamics of tax revenues, coincided with the periods of maximum reduction in their volumes. The most crisis periods in the formation of tax revenues are 2019–2020, for certain types of taxes – 2016–2020, but the dissipation of tax revenues is projected for 2021–2022.
The comparison of the level of fractal similarity in dynamics of the volume of tax revenues and peculiarities of the dynamics of entropy and entropy production, allowed to substantiate the division of taxes into nine types, of which five were found in Ukraine.

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    • Figure 1. Sequence of forecasting the volume of tax revenues during the crisis
    • Figure 2. Dynamics of average annual entropy by types of taxes
    • Figure 3. Dynamics of average annual entropy production by types of taxes
    • Table 1. Results of R|S-analysis of the dynamics of tax revenues to the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine for the period January 2011–May 2021
    • Table 2. Periods of dissipation of tax revenues to the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine by different types of taxes
    • Table 3. Typology of taxes according to the peculiarities of the dynamics of tax revenues
    • Conceptualization
      Oleh Skorba, Tetyana Pasko, Viktoriia Babenko-Levada, Tetiana Tereshchenko
    • Data curation
      Oleh Skorba, Tetyana Pasko
    • Formal Analysis
      Oleh Skorba, Viktoriia Babenko-Levada, Tetiana Tereshchenko
    • Funding acquisition
      Oleh Skorba, Tetyana Pasko, Viktoriia Babenko-Levada, Tetiana Tereshchenko
    • Investigation
      Oleh Skorba
    • Resources
      Oleh Skorba
    • Software
      Oleh Skorba
    • Validation
      Oleh Skorba
    • Visualization
      Oleh Skorba
    • Writing – original draft
      Oleh Skorba
    • Writing – review & editing
      Oleh Skorba
    • Methodology
      Tetyana Pasko, Viktoriia Babenko-Levada, Tetiana Tereshchenko