Fiscal decentralization and rural ecotourism: Assessing the capacity of local budgets to improve life quality in Kazakhstan

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This paper aims to quantitatively assess the functional capacity of local self-government (LSG) budgets to implement green economy strategies. This study uses longitudinal budget data from Turkestan, an administrative region of Kazakhstan (2019–2024), applying correlation and regression modeling. Four econometric models were constructed to define the dependencies between total revenues, transfers, tax yields, and expenditures of rural administrations.
The empirical analysis identifies a critical level of vertical fiscal imbalance: the correlation between aggregate revenue (D01) and external transfers (TR-P) reached r = 0.991 (p < 0.01). Regression diagnostics confirm that 98.1% of revenue variance and 98.4% of expenditure variance are dictated by centralized subventions. The study uncovers a state of “budgetary mirroring” (a coefficient of 0.9938 in the expenditure-to-revenue model), in which approximately 99.4% of every tenge received is immediately absorbed by operational costs, effectively neutralizing long-term investment in ecotourism infrastructure. Conversely, an endogenous growth lever was detected: a strong correlation (r = 0.898) between tax yields and the sale of fixed assets. A second-order polynomial model (R² = 0.933) reveals a compounding acceleration in local tax generation, suggesting that the region has reached a fiscal inflection point with the potential to transition toward a self-sustaining development model.
To transform ecotourism into a sustainable economic driver, rural governance must shift from a “survivalist” management model to one of active asset stewardship. We recommend reforming transfer architectures to include performance-based grants specifically earmarked for green infrastructure and the commercialization of municipal property.

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    • Figure 1. Scatter plot of total revenues and total expenditures of rural local budgets in the Turkestan region (2019–2024)
    • Figure 2. Relationship between intergovernmental transfers and total expenditures of rural local budgets
    • Figure 3. Relationship between intergovernmental transfers and total revenues of rural local budgets
    • Figure 4. Scatter plot of tax revenues and revenues from the sale of fixed assets
    • Figure 5. Time series of tax revenues in rural areas of the Turkestan region (2019–2024)
    • Table 1. Structure of executed local budget revenues and expenditures in rural areas of the Turkestan region (2019–2024) (thousand euro)
    • Table 2. Correlation matrix of local budget revenue indicators in rural areas (2019–2024)
    • Table 3. Regression results: Determinants of rural budget revenues and expenditures
    • Conceptualization
      Aigul Kalymbetova, Dana Tubekova, Saule Kaltayeva, Bektur Keneshbayev
    • Formal Analysis
      Aigul Kalymbetova, Dana Tubekova, Raikhan Tazhibayeva, Saule Kaltayeva, Bektur Keneshbayev
    • Methodology
      Aigul Kalymbetova, Dana Tubekova, Raikhan Tazhibayeva
    • Supervision
      Aigul Kalymbetova
    • Writing – original draft
      Aigul Kalymbetova, Dana Tubekova, Saule Kaltayeva
    • Writing – review & editing
      Aigul Kalymbetova, Dana Tubekova, Raikhan Tazhibayeva, Bektur Keneshbayev
    • Data curation
      Dana Tubekova
    • Validation
      Dana Tubekova, Bektur Keneshbayev
    • Investigation
      Raikhan Tazhibayeva, Saule Kaltayeva, Bektur Keneshbayev
    • Project administration
      Saule Kaltayeva
    • Visualization
      Bektur Keneshbayev